Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2074.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

We regrettably had to take last Friday off but in the end if was no big deal.  The market was up a bit and no major resistance or support lines were breached.  As it turns out I'm still running a bit behind so while I've done all the usual analysis, tonight I'll just present the results and skip the individual charts.  It's the Reader's Digest Condensed Night Owl.  I am planning to be fully caught up by Monday night.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2070.17 to 2074.50.  That move combined with a basically flat overnight leaves ES less than one point above its new pivot.  So that's still bullish but not by much.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 
October    6       6      3           1       0.538    271 
November   4       4      5           0       0.444     38
December   2       1      0           1       0.750     25

     And the winner is...

Tonight there's a whole bunch of dojis in the charts indicating a fair amount of uncertainty, perhaps over some weak numbers out of Asia.  In any case, there's not really enough direction to call the market either higher or lower tonight so we'll just have to settle for Monday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account now stands at $110,500 after ten trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 10 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 4 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.