Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2044.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader closed.

Recap

The technicals have been working well so far this month.  Wednesday's reversal signs led to a nice gain on Thursday.  We now move on to wrap up the first full week of the new year.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow had an excellent day Thursday, retracing most of last week's nasty losses with a tall 323 point marubozu that popped it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  We also now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover and indicators are still just rising off oversold.  So this chart remains bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "this one looks ready for lower again Thursday" and that's just where it went, gapping down 12% on a short red marubozu that fell out of a rising RTC for a bearish trigger.  We also got a completed bearish stochastic crossover and indicators that are only now coming off overbought so this chart remains bearish for Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 1:14 AM EST with ES down 0.10% but NQ up 0.02%.  ES had a great day Thursday like everything else and also popped out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  I think we can say goodbye to last week's downtrend.  The overall look remains bullish but I do see a note of caution in momentum and money flow, which have turned back lower after rising for three days.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot zooms from 2013.00 to 2044.58. And even with that big bump we're still above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "Let's just say the dollar's going to infinity" and by golly that seems to be just where it's headed, up another 0.53% on Thursday its fourth gap-up in five days.  So nothing's changed tonight - it's still up, up and away.

Euro:  And the poor euro just can't seem to catch a break, down again (yawn) on Thursday, now to 1.1790.  Last night I wrote "Last night I wrote "The 1.1763 I've been talking about isn't so far away now.""  And what was Thursday's low for the euro?  1.1761.  Bada bing!  And guess what?  The euro is now actually rising in the overnight, up 0.21% so far.  So with buyers coming in, my support level hit, and both money flow and OBV finally starting to  improve, we just might, just maybe might see an up day for the euro on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "I'd say this one looks higher again Thursday" and was it ever - up 2.16% on a tall green marubozu that gapped up out of a descending RTC for a bullish setup and a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  So all signs are positive here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    3      0       0           1       1.000    784

     And the winner is...

All the signs in the charts are clearly bullish tonight.  So why am I hesitating?  I don't like the little turn I see in the futures, for one.  Also, it's not uncommon to take a break after a good two day run.  We're pretty much re-running the middle of December here so I think that while there's still some upside left, it's likely to be limited on Friday and we might even get a doji day.  Therefore I'm just going to pop the escape hatch and call Friday uncertain.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader
 
VZ did quite well on Thursday, like the entire rest of the Dow so I'm calling the all-clear here.  It once again looks like a buy to me.