Thursday, January 8, 2015

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2013.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader closed.

Last night's conditional call worked textbook perfect.  After  noodling about its pivot for a while, around 4:30 AM ES took off and never looked back.  The result: plus 213 points for the Dow.  Like I say, this doesn't always work, but it's a high enough percentage to keep it i the repertoire.  So with that out of the way let's move on to Thursday.  But first ...

Political rant

In the wake of Wednesday's outrageous mass murder of the staff of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in Paris, perhaps we ought to take a look at what all the fuss was about.  I simply cannot remain silent on this issue.
Make fun of Islam and die.

This is it.  The title says "If Mohammed came back...".  Mohammed is saying "I am the prophet, moron!" and the moron with the knife is saying "Up yours, infidel!".  This was worth killing 12 people over?  Are you kidding me?

If the Western world ever needed a wake-up call that the so-called "religion of peace" is just an excuse for mayhem of a sort that leaves me speechless, we've got it now.

We would do well to remember that the fundamental tenet of Islam is that all non-believers must either convert or die.  And it looks like these agents of Satan have a never-ending supply of lunatics eager to carry out their orders.

And there is historical precedent for the assertion that Islam is in fact out to conquer the world.  By the early 700's, Islam had overrun most of northern Africa.  The Islamic barbarians then set their sights on Europe, invading Spain.  They weren't happy with that so next they attacked France.  It wasn't until the Battle of Tours in north-central France in October 732 that they were finally stopped by Charles Martel, aka Charlie the Hammer.  Without Charlie's courage, we'd all be writing backwards and the Night Owl would be running around town in a Halloween get-up every day.  And certainly wouldn't be publishing tonight's post.

It looks like we are now faced with a new outbreak of this pestilence.  These bloodthirsty psychopaths need to be stopped and stopped soon before it is too late.  Where is Charlie when we need him?  My heart goes out to the families of the 12 victims of this brutal and profoundly senseless massacre.

The technicals

The Dow:  Wednesday's action was quite bullish for the Dow, let alone the big gain.  We got all the indicators to bottom, got a bullish stochastic crossover and a quasi-bullish piercing pattern for a candle.  This seems to put an end to the recent exponential run-down and this is just about the way they always end.  So I'm now bullish on this chart for Thursday.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I give it better than even odds of moving lower Wednesday."  Too bad I couldn't find any takers because the VIX fell 9% on Wednesday on a gap-down marubozu give up its BB midpoint and send the indicators off their overbought extremes.  With a solid bearish stochastic crossover now in place, this one looks ready for lower again Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:33 AM EST with ES up  0.66%  Technically, ES had a great day on Wednesday, confirming a bottom last Friday with a bullish setup, indicators all rising off oversold, and a bullish stochastic crossover.  This chart gets the green light.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot finally rises from 2000.75 to 2013.00.  We remain well above the new pivot so this indicators is now solidly bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I speculated the dollar might take a pause Wednesday but instead it just kept going right on higher with another gap up candle.  I give up on analyzing the details.  Let's just say the dollar's going to infinity ... and beyond.

Euro:  Last nnight I wrote "The 1.1763 I've been talking about isn't so far away now.". Well after another leg down and a 1.1857 close Wednesday, it's even closer now.  And the overnight just keeps on falling.  Kick that nasty euro lower all you bots, go ahead kick it hard.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "a reversal is at hand here, if not Wednesday then more likely Thursday." and that seems to have about covered it as the trans gained 0.71% Wednesday after bouncing off their lower BB.  RSI has bottomed now and the stochastic is gearing up for a bullish crossover.  Support at 8739 kicked in so I'd say this one looks higher again Thursday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    2      0       0           1       1.000

     And the winner is...

Tonight we've gotten the bullish confirmation I was looking for last night so I'm just going to go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well it looked good on Tuesday but then Verizon broadsided us with an announcement about their purported deal with AOL and that was that - down to 46.19, one of only three losers on the Dow.  That move also screwed up the indicators and in the absence of a bullish RTC exit, I won't be adding anything here until I see some sort of reversal.


Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.