Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2039.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy

Original vintage poster VEVEY SWISS WINE FESTIVAL 1955It's nice to see the technicals play out as expected for once and on Tuesday they delivered nicely with a  156 point gain in the Dow.  I was a bit surprised to see a move this big ahead of the Fed, but it is what it is.  Moving forward, it is my standing policy to never call Fed days, and this one coming up is about the best one I can think of to stay away from.  Accordingly, we're skipping the detailed charts tonight.  There's no point in analyzing anything when the conclusion is foregone.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:31 AM EST with ES up 0.24%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2013.00 to 2039.50.  That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   4      6       4           2       0.500   -350
December   6      2       3           0       0.750    662

     And the winner is...

Will the Fed deliver good news on Wednesday or bad news?  And then will Mr. Markert react to good news as good news or bad news, or bad as good, etc.?  Who knows.  I sure don't so I'm not touching this one at all even though the futures are guiding higher at the moment.  Bottom line: Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ did manage a small advance on Tuesday but it was a classic doji star so that closes the window on this buy.  The conservative choice would be to get out now while the gettin's good.

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