Monday, January 25, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1885.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Original vintage poster SWISS ART EXPO NEUCHATEL ROBERT 1913Last Friday the technicals (finally) moved in the expected directions and by the end of the day the recent picture had changed considerably.  Let's now go right to the charts to see what's new and which way Monday is headed.

[Blogspot's spell checker is on strike again so I apologize in advance for any typos].

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow finally exited its year-long descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  Indicators are finally off of oversold and continuing to rise.  With a solid green marubozu on the books, there's nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I noted that the VIX was difficult to call but that the pattenr looked bearish.  That was borne out on Friday with a  big 16.3% gap-down red marubozu decline.  Indicators continue falling off overbought and there's just nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:11 AM EST with ES up 0.12%. On Friday, ES had its biggest day of the year with a tall green marubozu to close right back up to 1899.25, its best finish in a week.  Indicators are all rising smartly off oversold but atill nowhere near overbought.  My only concern here is that we might be in for a pause on Monday after such a big one day move.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1860.17 to 1885.75. Even at that, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar fooled m elast Friday by refusing to go lower.  Instead it gained a big 0.53% to disconfirm its upper-BB piercing inverted hammer.  This move brought us almost back to the upper BB and left indicators fairly overbought.  We're also right on month-long resistance so it's not clear the dollar has the oomph needed to advance on Monday.

Euro:  At least I got the euro right last Friday when I said that more downside was available.  And it certainly was as the curo crashed back to 1.0804 on a tall red marubozu.  Indicators ar enow wandering around bwetween oversold and overbought so this one is a difficult cal.  The trend lately has been to retrace big moves so I'd not be surprised to actually see something of a move higher on Monday.

Transportation:  Much like the Dow, the trans had a great day on Friday, up 1.32% for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit.  Indicators continue to rise off of oversold but the candle is an inverted hammer which lends a note of cation here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      3       3           0       0.727    1318

     And the winner is...

There are no real particularly bearish signs on the charts tonight but we're only seeing modest gains in the futures.  It's not unusual for the market to take a breather after running as hard as it did last Friday and I think that's what's going to happen this time.  This also begins another Fed week and there's likely to be some hand-sitting in advance of that.  So I'm not going to try to play the hero here and will simply call Monday uncertain.  Could possibly be a doji day.

YM Futures Trader

We managed to recoup a lot of our paper losses here on Friday and are now close to break-even on this trade.  Who knows, patience may prevail in the end.

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