Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1882.33.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Ouch.  I guess that's what I get for taking my stock market advice form a moose.  On Tuesday the market did not fall again, instead the Dow rose 282 points for its best showing of hte year so far.  Apparently, a gain in oil and consumer confidence numbers combined for a one-two punch to KO my forecast.  Oh well - I never really mind being wrong on a down call since I'm always net long anyway.

Now the thing is is that Wednesday is a Fed day and it's my firm policy to always call those days as "uncertain" since there's a good chance they'll be news-driven.  So given taht, we'll simply skip the individual charts tonight as there's really no point in going into that much detail.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.  For the bottom line, just scroll down.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:48 AM EST with ES down 0.41%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1880.67 to 1882.33. That leaves ES ack above its new pivot so this indicator flips over to bullish again.

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      4       4           0       0.67     1036

     And the winner is...

I'll be glued to the news at 2 PM just like everyone else on Wednesday.  For the record, I'm not expecting another rate hike, but it will be interesting to hear what Auntie Janet has to say.  Bottom line: the call is Wendesday uncertain.  For the record, the charts are sufficiently mixed tonight that I probably would have called it uncertain even if wednesday wasn't a Fed day.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

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