Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above its new pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1885.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

With so much uncertainty in the charts last Thursday night, it wasn't at all clear which way the market would break on Friday.  Turns out some rather poor jobs numbers did the trick and the Dow dopped 212 points.  We now enter the second week of February with another Night Owl Lite.  I'm going to be busy watching the Big Game.  Of course I mean the Puppy Bowl.  Is there anything else going on tonight?  So I will simply skip the individual chart commentary (though I still look them over) and cut right to the conclusions.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EST with ES up 0.45%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 1906.75 to 1885.17. Even that still leaves ES below its new pivot but only by a point.  So at the moment this indicator is mildly bearish, but that could change.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       2           0       0.667     193


     And the winner is...

For the last month, every time we've had a big down day, it's been followed by an up day.  And the futures certainly seem to be suggesting a move higher Monday right now.  But the VIX, Dow and trans all look technically bearish.  So I think the best way to resolve this conundrum, given the current proximity of ES to its new pivot is to make a conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it remains below the pivot, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.