Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1845.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

After spending most of the day underwater, the Dow began a relentless post-lunch rally that nearly torpedoed my call for a lower close.  It was only some last-minute selling that saved the day for me.  And even then, the result was a classic doji star.  Tonight's another Night Owl Lite night so just skip to the bottom for the results.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.46%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1852.75 to 1845.92. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator just continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   3      1       2           1       0.800     206


     And the winner is...

We now have a bunch of charts stretched to fairly extreme levels.  In particular, the VIX hit its upper BB with a dark cloud cover on Tuesday and that's always a great reversal sign.   Add in dojis in the Dow and a big bullish divergence in the trans which gained 1.04% on a day the rest of the market fell and it's all starting to feel like a short-term bottom.  On the other hand, the futures have resumed their free-fall in the new overnight, possibly on noise related to European banks, or something to that effect.  Oil, for a change was actually higher on Tuesday.  But the kicker Wednesday is going to be Auntie Janet delivering a load of Feddage to Congress and who knows what she's going to say.  So all in all, this looks like a good time to simply call Wednesday uncertain.  I do believe we're setting up for at least one up-day before the week's out.  Whether it's Wednesday is still an open question.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.