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- Wednesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 1845.92. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .
After spending most of the day underwater, the Dow began a relentless post-lunch rally that nearly torpedoed my call for a lower close. It was only some last-minute selling that saved the day for me. And even then, the result was a classic doji star. Tonight's another Night Owl Lite night so just skip to the bottom for the results.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.46%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1852.75 to 1845.92. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator just continues bearish.
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 3 1 2 1 0.800 206
And the winner is...
We now have a bunch of charts stretched to fairly extreme levels. In particular, the VIX hit its upper BB with a dark cloud cover on Tuesday and that's always a great reversal sign. Add in dojis in the Dow and a big bullish divergence in the trans which gained 1.04% on a day the rest of the market fell and it's all starting to feel like a short-term bottom. On the other hand, the futures have resumed their free-fall in the new overnight, possibly on noise related to European banks, or something to that effect. Oil, for a change was actually higher on Tuesday. But the kicker Wednesday is going to be Auntie Janet delivering a load of Feddage to Congress and who knows what she's going to say. So all in all, this looks like a good time to simply call Wednesday uncertain. I do believe we're setting up for at least one up-day before the week's out. Whether it's Wednesday is still an open question.
YM Futures Trader
Nothing new again here.