Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1845.92.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Original vintage poster WALLIS VALAIS ALETSCH GLACIERAfter spending most of the day underwater, the Dow began a relentless post-lunch rally that nearly torpedoed my call for a lower close.  It was only some last-minute selling that saved the day for me.  And even then, the result was a classic doji star.  Tonight's another Night Owl Lite night so just skip to the bottom for the results.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.46%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1852.75 to 1845.92. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator just continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   3      1       2           1       0.800     206

     And the winner is...

We now have a bunch of charts stretched to fairly extreme levels.  In particular, the VIX hit its upper BB with a dark cloud cover on Tuesday and that's always a great reversal sign.   Add in dojis in the Dow and a big bullish divergence in the trans which gained 1.04% on a day the rest of the market fell and it's all starting to feel like a short-term bottom.  On the other hand, the futures have resumed their free-fall in the new overnight, possibly on noise related to European banks, or something to that effect.  Oil, for a change was actually higher on Tuesday.  But the kicker Wednesday is going to be Auntie Janet delivering a load of Feddage to Congress and who knows what she's going to say.  So all in all, this looks like a good time to simply call Wednesday uncertain.  I do believe we're setting up for at least one up-day before the week's out.  Whether it's Wednesday is still an open question.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.