Thursday, June 30, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2054.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

After Wednesday's action, you don't need Servpro to tell you that it's like it never even happened.  If you'd gone camping in the woods out of Internet range a week and a half ago and you just came back and looked at Wednesday's Dow close you'd think, well it doesn't look like much happened while I was gone.  In just two days we've done a Fibonacci retracement to better than the 0.618 line of all of the Big Brexit Bomb.  Now that the excitement seems to have subsided (until the next Stockocalypse) let's see if we can get back to the business of calling Thursday's close.

The technicals

The DowOn Wednesday the Dow put in a nice gap-up green maurbozu and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  Looking good right now.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "the selling's not done yet" and indeed it wasn't as the VIX dropped another 11.25% on Wednesday on a red gap-down marubozu thatpunched right down through its 200 day MA.  With a full bearish stochastic crossover going and falling indicators, there's nothing bullish here right now.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are little changed at 12:32 AM EDT with ES dead flat.. On Wednesday ES followed up Tuesday's 200 day MA cross with another nice green maurbozu and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  The candles all look bullish right now but the pin action is feeling a bit tired.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2013.50 to 2054.75.  Once again, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index: On Wednesday the dollar confirmed its evening star pattern with a 0.54% drop that caused a bearish stochastic crossover while leaving indicators overbought, so this chart looks continued lower.

Euro:  On Wednesday the euro broke back above its 200 day MA and formed a bullish stochastic crossover, both positive signs.  The new overnight isn't going anywhere so far but the MA should serve as support now.

Transportation:  The trans outperformed the Dow on Wednesday with a bullish stochastic corrsover of their owen so this chart looks bullish again.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       6           1       0.643    1393

     And the winner is...

After an excellent two-day run, the market is entitled to take a pause.  Also, the last day of June is historically bearish according to The Stock Traders Almanac.  But in the absence of any overtly negative charts, I can't really call it lower so I will simply settle for calling Thursday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.


  1. Another positive month: 1393...and all months positive so far this year. Excellent!

    1. Thanks! June started off pretty poorly but this is a good example of how persistence pays off. It ended up being one of my better months, thanks to a bit of Brexit-induced volatility.


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