Tuesday, June 28, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher.
  • ES pivot 1996.33.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

On Monday, it mattered not to Mr. Market that we'd run down so far so fast on Friday, he was still in "the sky is falling" mode as the selling continued unabated with the Dow dumping another 261 points to finish just off session lows.  More ominously perhaps, the Dow, the SPX, and ES all broke under their 200 day MA's on Monday (and the dollar broke above its own).  So with that bit o' news let's see what Tuesday might hold.

The technicals

The DowIn addition to the 200 MA cross, on Monday the Dow also fell out of its long rising monthly RTC that defined the current bull market going all the way back to the March 2009 lows.  It's also now formed a monthly bearish stochastic crossover.  A bearish stochastic crossover is also in full swing on the daily chart so there's really nothing optimistic about this chart at all right now.

The VIX:  Adding to the general weirdness lately, this was one of those rare days when the VIX fell along with the rest of the market.  At least that confirmed the extraodrinary hanging man I noted last night as the VIX cam ein 7.41% on Monday.  That was enought o curve the stochastic around close to a bearish crossover and form something of an evenign star.  I'd have to guess there's more downside ahead here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up 0.86%. As I mentioend, ES fell below its 2200 day MA Monday in a move that sent the indicators oversold.  But 200 MA crosses sometimes rebound and this may be one of those cases as the new overnight is actually running higher for a change.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2045.67 to 1996.33.  And that, plus a rally in the overnight is finally enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator is now back to bullish

US dollar ($USDUPX) daily
Dollar index: Last night I was wary of calling the dollar lower just because it had gapped up so much on Friday.  Turns out that was good - because it gapped up again almost as much on Monday, up another 1.16% blasting right up through its 200 day MA with a second spinning top in a row.  And even that didn't send the indicators overbought as the stochastic continues in bullish crossover mode.  But by now I'm thinking "what goes up must come down" so this can't go on forever.  Just look at this chart.  I've never seen anything like this.

Euro:  Add the euro to the list of charts that crossed their 200 day MA on Monday as this one gapped down back to 1.10035.  Indicators ar enow oversold but the stochastic continues falling.  We do owever see a small rally attempt building in the overnight so with Monday's low higher than Friday's, a bottom might be in.

Transportation:  The trans really took it on the chin Monday, down a massive 3.10%, doubling the Dow's loss. Move along, nothing bullish to see here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       6      5       6           1       0.636     834

     And the winner is...

In ordrinary times, I'd be a bit skeptical of an overnight rally in the futures in the face of such an array of bearish charts.  But like I said before, these are not ordinary times.  ES is putting in a nice bullish piercing pattern at the moment on a non-trivial rally, and the VIX seems to have peaked and is coming back down to earth.  I don't know if this is shorts getting nervous and doing some preemptive profit-taking, or bargain hunters deciding the world isn't actually coming to an end after all.  Either way, I have a vague suspicion we could be in for at least a one day relief rally so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.


  1. What is your opinion? Europe is in irrational euphoria (+2.50%) after the most horrendous irrational Down Friday / Down Monday since the Dark Ages. Is this another Almanac Trader statistical spoof? I think this is the fifth this year, till now just crying wolf. But for once my usual unreliable fortune-teller also coincides that this DF/DM is a very bad omen and her Tarot is predicting deep trouble this summer. Maybe just another self-realizing prophecy? Have a nice day and great trades!!!

    1. Ah, I don't know. I just got up and haven't seen the news yet. This may just be one of those VIX-induced volatility rallies. See for example the Dow on 10/13/08. Huge rally after a seven day slide that knocked 200 points off the Dow. But worse was yet to come.

      And yes, I did notice the DF/DM. Thanks for reminding me - I'll have to write about that. For the record, the DF/DM count now stands at 5 - not so good. Happy trading!


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