Thursday, July 7, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday  lower.
  • ES pivot 2084.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday  bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Huh.  Well that was interesting.  It sure looked to me last night like we were going lower on Wednesday and although we indeed start off that way, Mr. Market spent the rest of the day clambering out of that hole to end up 78 points in the Dow.  Even looking back at it now, I still don't see how I might have called it differently.  Oh well, at least not much harm done.  Let's now continue on to Thursday as this holiday-shortened week continues.  It's another Night Owl Lite night too.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:24 AM EDT with ES dead even.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 20886.67 to 2084.75.  But ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       0      1       1           0       0.000     -78

     And the winner is...

I don't know - it sure seems to me like all of the forces in play last night are still there tonight.  Despite Wednesday's gains, we're not really making much headway, the futures are stalled in the overnight, and market indicators are now overbought.  The Dow, ES, and SPX all have stochastics just about to form a bearish crossover and the trans fell on a day the Dow was up.  Call me crazy but I'm going to go back to the well and call Thursday lower.  We'll see.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight - still short at 17,670.

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