Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday lower.
- ES pivot 2084.75. Holding above is bullish.
- Friday bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
Huh. Well that was interesting. It sure looked to me last night like we were going lower on Wednesday and although we indeed start off that way, Mr. Market spent the rest of the day clambering out of that hole to end up 78 points in the Dow. Even looking back at it now, I still don't see how I might have called it differently. Oh well, at least not much harm done. Let's now continue on to Thursday as this holiday-shortened week continues. It's another Night Owl Lite night too.The technicals
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:24 AM EDT with ES dead even.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 20886.67 to 2084.75. But ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.
Accuracy:
average points
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 0 1 1 0 0.000 -78
And the winner is...
I don't know - it sure seems to me like all of the forces in play last night are still there tonight. Despite Wednesday's gains, we're not really making much headway, the futures are stalled in the overnight, and market indicators are now overbought. The Dow, ES, and SPX all have stochastics just about to form a bearish crossover and the trans fell on a day the Dow was up. Call me crazy but I'm going to go back to the well and call Thursday lower. We'll see.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight - still short at 17,670.
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