Wednesday, July 6, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday - lower.
  • ES pivot 2084.42.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week  bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: going short at 17,670.

I took Tuesday off as a rare vacation day though I did leave a bit of a clue last night when I suggested the market was looking bearish.  And indeed the Dow shed 109 points on Tuesday though I can't add that to the scoreboard since it wasn't an official call.  Tonight we're doing another Night Owl Lite night as I'm running behind.  I don't like these Monday Holiday weeks.  Tuesday seemed like Monday, Monday seemed like Sunday, and so on.  So let's just get to the conclusions for Wednesday and move on.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:03 AM EDT with ES down 0.47%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2092.83 to 2086.67.  That leaves ES again below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       0      0       1           0         NaN       0

     And the winner is...

The market appears to be at a short-term top right now.  Add in the sudden revivial of the Brexit That Wouldn't Die, and I'm going to say the we're going to see Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Going short at 17,670.

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