Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
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• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2164.17.  Holding above is bullish..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Last night's conditional call worked out OK as ES noodled about its pivot until just before 2 AM ad then broke higher.  By mid-morning Wednesday we were still above the pivot and in the end the Dow gained another 36 points.  But I find this multitude of days with tiny gains slightly disconcerting.  I guess maybe the dog days of summer are already upon us what with the VIX sinking below 12, around two year lows.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are once again barely changed at 12:25 AM EDT with ES up just one tick and YM down one.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2156.92 to 2164.17.  That now leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator is once again bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       3      4       3           2       0.556    -258

     And the winner is...

The Dow's RSI hit 100 yet again on Wednesday, making it three in a row.  I can't recall the last time this happened - if it's ever happened.  And that little gap-up spinning top did not inspire a whole lot of confidence.  On the other hand, calling the close the way I do seems like it's been a fool's errand all month so far.  The VIX is in the doldrums and VVIX looks ready to move lower, if you can believe that.  It's like everyone has already packed up and left for summer vacation, whether it be Maine, Monaco, or Montreux.

The market is still clearly overbought but with these tiny moves and all the volatility wrung out there's no way (that I know of anyway) to meaningfully call the close.  So I'm just going to throw the I-dunno card and call Thursday uncertain.  Looks like the Dog Days are here.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.