Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2156.92.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
  • Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Foo.  My call for a lower close on Tuesdya was looking good early on as the Dow wavered and then went negative - until lunch time.  It then began a march higher to finish all of 26 points higher.  Now the SPX and Nasdaq did both indeed end lower, but my call is for the Dow so that's a miss.  It's realy difficult to make accurate calls in such a low volatility environment.  Let's see if we can make any sense of this as we continue on to Wednesday.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EDT with ES down 0.09%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2158.67 to 2156.92.  That leaves ES right on top of its new pivot so this indicator is neither bullish nor bearish at the moment.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       3      4       3           1       0.500    -258

     And the winner is...

On Tuesday the Dow put in a decent bullish engulfing pattern but the SPX gave us a weak doji.  The Dow's RSi remains stuck on 100 for the second day in a row.  It looks rather toppy ut simply refuses to go lower.  And the futures aren't offering much in the way of guidence tonight.  What we do have is an ES sitting right on its new pivot so we're going to take that exit and make another confitional call.  This essentially punts the decision to id-morning Wednesday.  If ES breaks above its daily pivot and is still there by mid-morning Wednesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below the pivot, we close lower.  It doesn't always work, and you do lose the movement of the open, but that's the best I can do at the moment.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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