Thursday, August 25, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2177.25.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Heh - it looks like CNBC must be reading the Night Owl.  Right after I mentioned last night that it looked like "another snoozer" on the way, they had a piece today about how the SPX has gone 33 sessions without a 1% move, the most in over 30 years or something like that.  I think it's a combination of summer vacations, Fed gaming, and pre-election hand-sitting.  Everyone's waiting for some direction from somewhere and they're not getting it.  In the meantime the markets just continue to drift without much direction.  

For the record, last night I did mention that "There's a hint of a downward bias in the charts" and that's about what we got with a 66 point drop in the Dow.

So we'll go ahead and take another look at the charts anyway - for whatever much good that does these days.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially unchanged at 12:48 AM EDT with ES dead flat. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2185.33 to 2177.25.  That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       3           0       0.000     120

     And the winner is...

Tonight is playing out like a re-run of last night.  With a continuing lack of direction, there's really very little I can say about the markets tomorrow.  I'm not calling 20 or 40 point Dow moves.  For the record, things are in fact looking a bit on the bearish side, with the VIX perking up a bit on Wednesday but it still isn't anything I feel good enough about to bake into a call.  Therefore I continue to call Thursday uncertain.  Maybe after Labor Day we'll start to see some action again.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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