Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2185.33.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Ja ja, so we called Tuesday uncertain and after a triple digit pop out the gate the Dow pulled back in to finsih with just an 18 point gain.  That's about as uncertain as it gets in my book.  And that's pretty much in line with the recent random popcorn activity we've been seeing with short sharp excursions in a given direction followed by a gradual reversion to the mean.  Let's take a gander at tonight's charts to see if anything's different for Wednesday.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down a scant 0.03%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2179.83 to 2185.33.  That's enough to send ES below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       2           0       0.000     120

     And the winner is...

Ah nope, there's not really all that much different tonight.  There's a hint of a downward bias in the charts but with the market continuing to trade in tight ranges and alternating up and down days seemingly at random, we're not left with much to go on.  Maybe I should just take the rest of the month off.  In any case, I'm simply calling Wednesday uncertain again.  Looks like another snoozer on the way.  That's August on the Street for you.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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