Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2148.67.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

The market is now clearly back into the same sort of sideways congestion we were bedeviled with over the middle of August.  At least the technicals worked out last Friday with my call for a lower close being vindicated despite some peculiar square wave action in which the Dow executed three different practically vertical moves only to end up off just 28 points on Friday.

We now begin a strange week with a holiday in which the bond markets are closed but everything else is open, followed by a religious holiday which may cut into some of the action.  So we'll look at the charts to see what Monday might hold in store with the caveat that this isn't business as usual.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:18 AM EDT with ES up 0.26%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2152.33 to 2148.67.  That's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish again.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59 October    1      1       2           1       0.667     -57

     And the winner is...

There's still plenty of indecision in the charts tonight and I'm not quite sure what to make of these candles.  But with no economic news coming out and the bond market on vacation, I don't think we're going to see any major swings.  And there are certainly no overtly bearish signs to be found at the moment.  Therefore I'm going to go with the futures which are guiding higher, so far anyway.  So the call is for Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.