Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2157.00.  Holding below is bearish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

Last night was looking kind of iffy but the futures were guiding higher so I went with that.  Sometimes that can be just a fake-out but this time it paid off.  The Dow took an impressive triple digit pop right out the gate and although it spent the rest of the day dribbling lower, that initial push was still good enough to leave us with an 89 point gain.  Now let's take a look at where Tuesday is going.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:53 AM EDT with ES down 0.16%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2148.67 to 2157.00.  The late evening sag in ES now leaves it below its new pivot so this indicator flips to bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    2      1       2           1       0.750      32

     And the winner is...

ES, 5 minutes

Monday left us with a classic inverted hammer that nearly touched its upper BB in the Dow along with indicators that have been creeping higher and are now finally just shy of overbought.  The VIX  meanwhile followed up Friday's doji with a big dark cloud cover.  However, that is not a guarantee of continued lower on Tuesday.  Tonight we're in something of an inverse situation from last night with conflicting candles but futures pointing (this time) lower.  But as I write, a little rally seems to be brewing in ES.  We saw that happen one night a week or so ago and the result was that the next day was higher.  So given all this indecision, I think I'm going to just throw up my hands and call Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.