Monday, November 14, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2165.17.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader::no trade tonight

Last Thursday night I made a conditional call for Friday based on the position of ES relative to its pivot by mid-morning.  As it turns out, it was close but no cigar  ES was under its pivot by that point but the Dow closed higher.  It was only by 40 points and the SPX did in fact close lower but the prediction is for the Dow so that's a miss.  But like I always say, this one doesn't always work.  In any case we now move on to November's op-ex week and see where the charts may lead us.  And a reminder - next week being Thanksgiving (is it Thanksgiving already?) I'm taking the entire week off.  Seems like a good time for a break.

Political Rant

The Sore Loser Brigade
So the news has been all awash lately with very angry people "protesting" Trump's election.  Huh?  Are you kidding me?  The man hasn't even taken office yet! What a bunch of sore losers.  Not your president, huh?  Well I wasn't particularly thrilled over Obama's election last time (or the time before that) but you didn't see me yelling my head off in the middle of the street over it any time, did you?  Grow up, you big babies.  Maybe by the next election you'll be six years old. 

And it's more than a bit humorous that they're all lining up to emigrate to Canada, all while angrily demanding the right for Mexicans to enter the US illegally.  Hey, why don't you leave for Cuba?  Or I didn't see anyone crashing the immigration web site of North Korea, eh?

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:16 AM EST with ES up 0.51%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2165.17 to 2160.17.  ES has broken above its new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   2      2       4           0       0.500     484

     And the winner is...

Copper, daily - a copper top?
Mondays are always the most problematic days to call because most of the data is two days old by Sunday night.  The main exception is the futures and tonight they're guiding non-trivially higher.  Now we admittedly do have a hanging man on an overbought Dow in record territory after a long five day run but we also have a VIX that has fallen through its 200 day MA and appears to be in no hurry to get back up.

On the other hand, I'm a bit wary of Dr. Copper who looks to have blown his top last Thursday with a giant inverted hammer at the end of a long run-up.  Still, with the futures up this much in the overnight, I'm reluctant to be bearish so I'm just going to call Monday higher and see what happens.  (There may be lower later this coming week).

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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