Monday, November 14, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2162.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of  week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

I took a chance that the Dow still had enough gas in the tank to gain a bit more on Monday and that's what we got with another 21 points higher.  (And I apologize for forgetting to update the call in Monday's "Hoot" section.  It really was simply "Monday higher" as an be verified from the text at the end of the post).  I also mentioned a bunch of factors that seemed to suggest a move lower soon.  Let's take a look at the charts to see if that's still on track.

The technicals

The DowThe Dow made it six in a row Monday albeit on a small gap-up doji star that left it highly overbought.  While we remain in a rising RTC, the stochastic has flattened out in preparation for a bearish crossover.  So things are looking fairly toppy at this juncture.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:16 AM EST with ES up 0.20%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2160.17 to 2162.42.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   3      2       4           0       0.600     505

     And the winner is...

Copper, daily
Monday had the feel of a party where everyone's having a great time but it's getting late and a few people are starting to cast sidelong glances at their watches and edge towards the door.  The Dow's looking toppy and ES has been having trouble making any headway since caroming off its upper BB last Thursday, putting in three reversal candles in a row.  Also, the VIX is now quite oversold and has been finding support around 14, putting in a small gain Monday..

Oil is also not doing so hot the past few days and Dr. Copper, who I mentioned last night was looking a bit queasy did in fact move lower Monday.  So despite an overnight rise in the futures (and I never like going against the futures) the majority of the evidence seems to support a move lower Tuesday.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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