Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2261.33.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

The markets continued their recent sag on Thursday with the Dow shedding another 72 points, its biggest loss in two weeks and one that defied a lower BB touching hammer on Wednesday.  That leaves the Dow now oversold as we finally, finally, at long last say hail, farewell and good riddance to Emperor Nerobama.  Thank God for term limits and also for the Electoral College which spared us yet another four years of Obama in the form of his puppet.  With any luck, that's the last we'll see of the Clintons too.  So we now look to the end of the week, Jamuary op-ex, and a new president all rolled into one.  Whew!

The technicals

The VIX:  On Thursday the VIX confirmed Wednesday's bullish engulfing pattern with a 2.4% advance but did it with a classic green spinning top so that's a possible move lower on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 1:49 AM EST with ES up 0.11% but YM down 0.07%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2264.42 to 2261.33.  That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

     And the winner is...

Options expirations to me are only second to Fed days in uncertainty.  Adding to the fun, January op-ex is historically weak according to the Stock Trader's Almanac but there's a few signs of a move higher in the charts yonight.  As the Night Owl enters its last month, I'm having none of this and simply calling Friday uncertain. 

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.