Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2266.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

We weren't sure which way the market might wander last Friday so I just called it uncertain.  Turns out between options expiration and the Donald's inauguration, Mr. Market generally liked it as the Dow rose a decent 95 points.to finish off the middle of the month.  O'Bummer is now officially history (finally) and somehow the planet continues to revolve about its axis so let's move on to the last full week of January (is it that already?) and see which way Monday might meander.

The technicals

The VIX: Last Thursday night I noted a spinning top in the VIX and mentioned "a possible move lower on Friday.".  And that possibility indeed came to pass in a big way on Friday as the VIX took a 10% tumble on a tall red marubozu..  That was enough to send the indicators all lower off overbought and for a bearish stochastic crossover.  There is now nothing bullish about this chart.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:27 AM EST with ES down 0.22%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2261.33 to 2266.17.  But that now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       6           0       0.643    170

     And the winner is...

A skittish daily SPX

Mondays are always difficult to call because most of the data is two days old already.   Last Friday's charts, including the Dow, the VIX and the trans actually all look pretty positive.  But the overnight futures are looking decidedly negative right now.  Also I note that ES hasn't put together two substantive moves in a row in either direction since the beginning of the month.  It's been alternating up and down days for the last eight in a row.

The general impression I get is that the market continues to search for direction, possibly waiting for some definitive action to come out of Washington.  Just look at the daily SPX chart and you can see it pretty clearly.  Who can cal daily market directions in such an environment?  Not me, so I'm regrettably going to have to call Monday uncertain again.


YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.