Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2271.50.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

OK,, so last night ES was sitting right on its new pivot and that was my cue to make a conditional call.  Well after that, ES noodled about its pivot until 4 Am, when even I had gone to bed and then just took off.  It made one brief stab at the pivot at 6:40 AM but that failed quickly and it was up, up and away form there as the Dow finished with a nice 113 point gain that puts it right back in striking distance of that mythical 20K level that's been tantalizing us for a month now.

Meanwhile, The Donald continued to drive the market higher with his pen while O'Bummer must have been pulling out what's left of his hair at the sight of all of his "legacy" unraveling like an old knitted basketball sock.  So that all leaves us to contemplate when the technicals might reassert themselves since all we've been seeing lately is a totally new-driven market.

The technicals

The VIX:  I did call this one right last night when I wrote that "the VIX looks lower from here".  On Tuesday the VIX fell 6% giving up all of Monday's gains and confirming the bearish harami with a close that puts us right back to multi-year lows.  In any event, this was not a bullish candle.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:39 AM EST with ES up 0.08%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2260.42 to 2271.50.  ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      2       7           1       0.750    170

     And the winner is...

Tonight all the charts are looking fairly bullish technically including a nice advance in the Dow only recently off oversold and a move lower in the VIX, plus solid outperformance form the trans.  So I'd call it a high risk call, and I may live to regret it but I'll go out on a limb and declare Wednesday higher, keeping i mind that all it will take is one tweet from the Donald to derail it.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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