Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2239.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Wednesday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Well I hope everyone had a very merry Christmas and a happy New Year.  Now it's time to get back to work as we begin anew.  Tonight I'm skipping all the charts because last week's holiday shortened low-volume action means little.  There's not much point in doing any sort of technical analysis on them. It will take a few days to re-prime the pump and get the market machine running normally again, or at least as normal as the market ever gets.

And tonight I have an announcement.  New Year's is the time for making changes so I'm announcing that I'm shutting down the Night Owl, effective February 17th.  That will be the blog's sixth anniversary.  That's a pretty good run for any blog.  We've had fun and I've accomplished all of the goals I originally set out.  I proved to myself I could create a daily blog and that I had the discipline to write it every single day.  I've managed to be right more often than not and I hope I've given back at least a little in thanks to those who helped me get started in the art of stock trading.  But all good things must come to an end, and the time has come for me to move on and free up some time for new projects.  I won't rule out an eventual reprise because one should never say never, but for now, it looks like this is it.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:19 AM EST with ES up 0.41%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2244.83 to 2239.00.  That now places ES above its new pivot so this indicator begins the new year bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    0      0       0           0       0.000       0

     And the winner is...

The first days of most months is bullish and that's often true of the first trading day of the year.  With the futures guiding higher (the most recent data we have) it's looking like it will be true this year.  We'll be watching carefully for the "first five days of January" indicator as well as the entire month of January indicator  And for those who have been keeping score, 2016 ended with e Down Friday/Down Monday index of exactly 10, just short of what we need to call a bearish 2017.  The counter now resets to zero.

The best clue we have tonight comes from the futures.  ES is quite oversold and its last two candles were reversals.  We're back above the new pivot and just formed a bullish stochastic crossover.  So I'll just go ahead and make my first call of the year: Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.