Wednesday, January 4, 2017

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2250.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

It's always nice to start off the new year with a win, and that we accomplished by calling the close higher as the Dow put in a triple digit gain to climb back to within striking distance of the fabled 20K handle.  It was an interesting U-shaped day that made for a very tall gap-up doji star.  That sometimes portends a reversal, so let's look for clues in the rest of the charts and figure out what's up (or down) for Wednesday.

VIX, daily
The technicals

The VIX:  I missed a good chance to put up this chart last night.  I always say that the VIX rarely spends more than a day or two above its upper BB and we got that last Friday with a candle that also featured a failed test of the 200 day MA (dashed orange line) and left the VIX quite overbought.  Double whammy - and down we came on Tuesday, off over 8% on a tall red marubozu.  With a new bearish stochastic crossover this one looks lower again on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:28 AM EST with ES up 0.13%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2239.00 to 2250.50.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    1      0       0           0       1.000     119

     And the winner is...

After a strong showing on Monday that confirmed a bullish crossover in ES, we're seeing some decent pin action in the new overnight.  Also, the Dow is now on the verge of a bullish stochastic crossover itself.  And with the VIX looking continued bearish, oil seemingly moving lower, and copper stabilizing, it seems appropriate to call Wednesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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