Yesterday I wrote "looking for higher" and we got it today, to the tune of a 71.5 point advance in the Dow. In fact, not only was this the fourth straight day of gains, but the gains got bigger with each passing day. Now looking at this daily chart, to me at least it almost looks like the Dow is going exponential here. You sometimes see that in stocks, but it's unusual to see an entire average do this. And it makes me a bit concerned. As we all know, this is one of the most classic signs that a top is coming.The VIX formed a classic hammer today to close back at its support level just under 16. This implies a rise in the VIX soon, and thereby lower stock prices. Add to this that today's volume was lower than yesterday's and that all three futures are non-trivially lower tonight (at 2 AM EST), with the ES in particular being down now by 0.23%, and I'm taking my long hat off at this point. I'm not taking the green swing trend arrow down as I've yet to see an indication that a top has been put in, but I do think we may be in for a day of lower prices tomorrow. We'll see.
No trades today. I'm watching the stocks in my low price/high yield portfolio closely now because they have run up so much since I bought them last summer, I've made more in capital gains than from their yield, which was the original objective. Therefore, it makes little sense to sacrifice that profit should they start back down. Yielding on average over 10%, this particular party can't go on forever.
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