Going down

Yesterday I wrote

"it would not surprise me to see the Dow decline tomorrow."

Sure enough, the Dow dropped 10.6 points today. And oddly enough, while yesterday the Dow was up and the Nasdaq and S&P were down, today it was exactly the reverse. Anyway, of more concern than the slight drop today is the fact that a host of technical items are all lining up bearishly right now:

First is the shape of the candle: definitely a hanging man. A hanging man with a long tail at the top of a big rally is always a bad sighn.

Secondly, the VIX did not in fact break its support and closed higher today. In fact, it clearly looks to have bottomed now and is poised to go higher.

Thirdly, the unrest in Egypt is cranking up again.

Fourthly, the Dow indicators which you can see on the chart here look to have topped and are rolling over from very overbought levels.

Fifthly, the Dow closed today at 12,229, just a hair's breadth above the daily pivot of 12,227.4. If the Dow falls below this level tomorrow, it will serve as resistance and then look out below.

Sixthly, look at how this week seems to be replaying two weeks ago. It was exactly two weeks ago Friday that we had that big 166 point plunge.

And finally, the ES futures are down a significant 0.53% right now (1:30 AM EST). NQ and YM are down almost as much. The ES in fact has already broken down out of its rising RTC and given a bearish trigger. That uptrend is already over and replaced by a downtrend.

None of this bodes well for tomorrow. Accordingly, I am declaring the current swing trend over, even though we did not get a true RTC bearish trigger today from the Dow. And I'm putting my short hat on for tomorrow. I'd love to be more optimistic, but I just don't see this market going higher on Friday. And I'll bet it loses more than 10 points.

No trades today