Monday, November 10, 2014

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 2026.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Friday was interesting not so much for the net change (which wasn't much) but for the candles it produced.  So let's take a peep and start predicting Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's paltry 19 point gain on Friday belied the classic hanging man it produced.  This is a fair reversal warning that gains credibility by virtue of its close proximity to the right edge of the rising RTC as well as the indicators, which re due to be coming off overbought any day now..

The VIX:  But comparatively, the VIX had a big decline Friday down another 4% after breaking under its 200 day MA.  We've now hit oversold but with no support til .11.80 I'd say there's still a fair amount of downside available here.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EST with ES up 0.11%.  On Friday ES also put in a reversal warning in the form of a little star with indicators that have been quite overbought for a  l o n g  time.  Nevertheless, we remain in a rising RTC and the Sunday overnight pin action looks positive, so I can't call a reversal here yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2022.67 to 2026.67.  After a quick failed test a little while ago, ES managed to remain above its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar remains rather overbought but on Friday it lost a big 0.46% on a classic dark cloud cover.  This is quite a bearish candle indeed so my money's on a lower dollar  Monday.

Euro: And of course to complement the dollar's bearish pattern on Friday we got a nice bullish piercing pattern form the euro.  Along with oversold indicators that makes this chart look bullish for Monday.

Transportation: IN  bit of bearish divergence on Friday the trans fell just 0.04% but that made a nice little star reversal warning.  With  OBV having apparently topped, this could mean lower on Monday.  With these record closes, it's hard to tell.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81 September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 October    6       6      3           1       0.538    271 November   2       2      1           0       0.500     50

     And the winner is...

The charts generally seem to be continuing bullish tonight, and enough so that the logical call is for Monday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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