Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher, low confidence.
• ES pivot 2030.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Well Monday played out about as expected with a modest 40 point gain for the Dow.  So now let's see how the day's charts look to predict Tuesday's close.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow rejected Friday's hanging man (this is why we always require confirmation of those reversal candles).. We remain inside a long-running rising RTC, the indicators remain broken overbought, nothing to see here, move along.

The VIX:  Since breaking under its 200 day MA three days ago, the VIX has been stuck in a steep descending RTC.  With another 3.43% decline on Monday and no support til .11.78 there seems to be still more room to run lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher again at 12:18 AM EDT with ES up a respectable 0.21%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2026.67 to 2030.00.  Once again we're above the new pivot so once again this indicator is positive.  ES also rejected a spinning top reversal warning Monday opting instead for a nice green candle to remain solidly inside a now long-running rising RTC.  And the overnight seems to be continuing on the same track.  We remain in record territory but still nowhere near the upper BB so there's really no bearish signs at all here tonight.

Dollar index:  After a dark cloud cover on Friday, the dollar did indeed put in a lower candle on Monday but because it closed above Friday's close, it ws green for a 0.21% gain.  Still, with indicators now looking to have peaked at overbought, lower looks more likely from here than higher.

Euro: Meanwhile, the euro continues its random descent into the basement with another ed candle to close at 1.2425 on Monday for a dark cloud cover.  There's still support around 1.2385 but I'd bet the euro is going to wan to revisit that level very shortly.

Transportation:  And finally on Monday the trans outperformed the Dow in a big way, up a big 1.33% to the Dow's 0.23% - Dow Theorists take note.This chart continues to look nothing but bullish.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 
October    6       6      3           1       0.538    271 
November   3       2      1           0       0.600     90

     And the winner is...

Once again, with the charts continuing to look pretty healthy and in the absence of any bearish signs, I just have to call Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.