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- Wednesday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2035.50. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Zzz...zzz...zz... huh? Huh, did the bell ring already? Boy, what a snoozer Tuesday was with the Dow ending with a gain of all of one whole point. What's up with that? Let's see what the charts have to say about it for Wednesday.
The Dow: The Dow's tiny little star on Tuesday is hanging right on the edge of a long-running rising RTC. And with indicators stuck on crazy-overbought, this is a reversal warning that's got my attention..
The VIX: Interestingly, the VIX which last night looked like nothing but lower Tuesday on a three black crows, instead put in a small bullish inside harami. With indicators remaining oversold, this one now seems to be giving a bullish reversal warning.
Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:42 AM EST with ES down 0.15%. We got a doji in ES on Tuesday too, so a note of caution is appropriate here. The overnight action so far seems to support that idea,
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2030.00 to 2035.50. For the first time in a while, that now leaves ES back under the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
Dollar index: The dollar seems to be having some trouble advancing lately. After w whole week of bouncing about, Tuesday's 0.22% loss calls the current rising RTC into question as we sit right on the very edge. Hmmm...
Euro: Meanwhile the euro looks to be putting in an ascending triangle. With indicators only just now off oversold, it looks like we may be in for a bullish breakout here in the next day or two.
Transportation: Like the Dow, the trans on Tuesday put in a perfect star doji. While a pause might be expected after Monday's big run-up,I note that RSI has now hit 96.5. But we still need confirmation. Note that just two days ago (last Thursday) we were in a nearly identical situation - (little star following a big gain)and yet the next day was up again. So it's still a bit premature to call this one lower yet though I'd not be going long right about now.
June 64 August November 4
And the winner is...
We're starting to see a number of dojis on the charts all warning of a short term top. Unfortunately, they all require confirmation and the counter-trend calls have been risky all year long. Accordingly I will have to be satisfied to simply call Wednesday uncertain. Though if I absolutely had to hazard a guess, I'd say it looks lower. I'd definitely not be going long tonight.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $121,625 after nine trades in 2014, starting with $100,000. We are now 7 for 9 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push. Tonight we stand aside.