Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2058.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

On Tuesday the market pretty much confirmed my expectations from last night as the Dow put in a 42 point decline saved only by its 200-day MA. With another important Fed day coming up, we'll cut straight to the chase as it is my general policy to never attempt to call a Fed day. We will resume the usual chart rundown on Wednesday

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2062.58 to 2058.83. That move was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314

September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      5       4           1       0.615    630

     And the winner is...

With the Fed coming up and despite the fact that the expectation is generally for no interest rate hike, I make it a point to never try and outguess them.  Therefore, I simply call Wednesday uncertain.  We'll see.

Single Stock Trader

For what it's worth, on Tuesday Verizon confirmed my bearish expectations and in fact ended up putting in a rare bearish tri-star pattern . With indicators still overbought and the stochastic just finally putting in a fresh bearish crossover, this one definitely looks lower on Wednesday.

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