Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2086.42.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

Original vintage poster VEVEY VAUD FINE ART EXPO 1901Last night I wasn't expecting too much action from the Dow and on Tuesday  that's about what we got with a gain of all of 13 points.  Tonight we face yet another Fed meeting and it is my long-stnading policy to never get in the way of the Fed.  The general consensus is that an interest rate hike on Wednesday is completely off the table and I quite agree with that.  The only question reaining is whether the 47th word in the statement will be "may" or "might" and that will make all the difference in Mr. Market's Kafkaeqsue world.

So tonight we're just skipping the charts as there's no point in analyzing a foregone conclusion.  Cheerio!

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EDT with ES down 0.26%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1987.00 to 2086.42. That send ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      4      4       7           2       0.600     148

     And the winner is...

Let's cut right to the chase: Wednesday is uncertain.  You can expect more hand-sitting until 2 PM when the Big Announcement comes out.  After that, we'll see whether good news is good news or if good news is bad news.  Could go either way.  Personally I think the statement will be more doveish than anything, but who knows.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

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