Thursday, May 5, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2048.75.  Holding above is bullish.  [value corrected after a comment from an alert reader]
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

TRAVEL SWITZERLAND SPRING ALPINE MOUNTAIN FLOWER FIELD ART PRINT POSTER BB7645BLast night I wrote that "I don't think the selling's done yet" and indeed it wasn't as the Dow dropped another 100 points on Wednesday. Tonight's another Night Owl Lite so let's go right to the bottom line.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up 0.31%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2060.42 to 2048.75. now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        1      0       1           1       1.000     100

     And the winner is...

Tonight, the major charts generally don't look so hot, but the VIX put in only a small gain Wednesday on an inverted hammer that once again tested its upper BB.  That's a good sign of a move lower.  And ES has been down two days in a row now.  I note that it has not put in a losing streak longer than that since the first week of January.  And it's now putting in a non-trivial rally that has sent it back above it pivot in the overnight.  Also oil is advancing again after putting in a long spindly doji star on Tuesday.  So call me crazy but I'm going to go with that and go out on a limb to call Thursday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..


  1. HI, Love your blog. Question: Where do you get your daily pivots? I use stockcharts and it has today's pivot at 2052.32, so I'm always slightly off your numbers. Is that because of different platforms? Settings? Just curious. Thanks, Mike

    1. I use eSignal for pivot values. What I don't always do is remember to update today's value in the "Hoot" line item, and that's what happened last night. Oops. The number in the "Technicals" section is correct though.

      Recall that the pivot is defined as P = (High + Low + Close)/3.

      Plugging in yesterday's values for ES into this gives us (2060.25 + 2039.00 + 2047.00) / 3 = 2048.75, which is correct.

      I'm not sure how calculates their pivots so I don't know how they'd get 2052.32.


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