Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday higher.
- ES pivot 2048.75. Holding above is bullish. [value corrected after a comment from an alert reader]
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: no trade.
Last night I wrote that "I don't think the selling's done yet" and indeed it wasn't as the Dow dropped another 100 points on Wednesday. Tonight's another Night Owl Lite so let's go right to the bottom line.
The technicals
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up 0.31%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2060.42 to 2048.75. ES.is now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 1 0 1 1 1.000 100
And the winner is...
Tonight, the major charts generally don't look so hot, but the VIX put in only a small gain Wednesday on an inverted hammer that once again tested its upper BB. That's a good sign of a move lower. And ES has been down two days in a row now. I note that it has not put in a losing streak longer than that since the first week of January. And it's now putting in a non-trivial rally that has sent it back above it pivot in the overnight. Also oil is advancing again after putting in a long spindly doji star on Tuesday. So call me crazy but I'm going to go with that and go out on a limb to call Thursday higher.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight..
Posts
HI, Love your blog. Question: Where do you get your daily pivots? I use stockcharts and it has today's pivot at 2052.32, so I'm always slightly off your numbers. Is that because of different platforms? Settings? Just curious. Thanks, Mike
ReplyDeleteI use eSignal for pivot values. What I don't always do is remember to update today's value in the "Hoot" line item, and that's what happened last night. Oops. The number in the "Technicals" section is correct though.
DeleteRecall that the pivot is defined as P = (High + Low + Close)/3.
Plugging in yesterday's values for ES into this gives us (2060.25 + 2039.00 + 2047.00) / 3 = 2048.75, which is correct.
I'm not sure how stockcharts.com calculates their pivots so I don't know how they'd get 2052.32.