Friday, May 6, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2047.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

TRAVEL SWITZERLAND SPRING ALPINE MOUNTAIN FLOWER FIELD ART PRINT POSTER BB7645BWhew!  Last night I called Thursday higher and  we were indeed looking good right out the gate until around the end of lunchtime.  Mr. Market must have had something that didn't agree with him because the Dow turned negative for a while before finally just barely recovering for a scant nine point gian by the time the bell rang.  Oh well, I'll take it.  I have to.  I was lucky, I admit it.  But sometimes it's better to be lucky than good - or anything else.

So with that excitement out of the way, it's time to wrap up the first week of May as we look forward to Friday.

[My apologies for any typos - Google's stupid spelling checker is uncooperative again tonight].

The technicals

Dow, monthly
The Dow:  Tonight I want to look at the monthly chart for the Dow.  Notice a clear double bottom forming ... if we can break out of the resistance just below 18,000 that's bedeviled us for a year now.  Unfortunately, the indicators aren't too encouraging.  Monthly RSI is actually moving lower while the stochastic is closer to a bearish crossover than anything.

The VIX: The VIX was fairly confusing on Thursday, down 0.87% on a day the Dow was basically flat.  And that came with a lopsided green spinning top.   Indicators remain overbought and we continue trading outside the latest rising RTC for a bearish trigger.  On the other hand we also got a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level and those are often good for a move higher, so I'm not too sure about this one going lower Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:58 AM EDT with ES down 0.12%.  On Thursday, ES continued its raggedy move lower since topping April 20th with a lopsided red spinning top back down to 2039.50.  Indicators are now all oversold but continue falling.  At least we're finally nearing the lower BB at 2034.54 and that's always good for a modicum of support.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2048.75 to 2047.83. back below its new pivot so this indicator is back to bearish.

Dollar index:   Boinnng!  When last I wrote of the dollar, I said "the dollar's looking higher on Wednesday".  And so it was.  But on Thursday it just took off, jumping 0.64% on a gap-up green marubozu.  The confirms a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit along with a bullish stochastic crossover while the indicators still remain just barely oversold.  That all spells higher again on Friday in my book.

Euro:  And of course just mirror-image all that for the euro.  It tanked on Thursday, right back to 1.14110, handily confirming Tuesday's tall inverted hammer top.  Indicators are all now falling off overbought and with no bullish signs in sight, it just looks like more downside on Friday here.

Transportation:  Due to the Night Owl Lite last night I didn't mention the 200 MA breakdown in the trans.  Never a good sign, that was confirmed on Thurday as they dropped an outsized 1.14% on a day the rest of the market went mostly nowhere.  Bad from a Dow Theoretic point of view.  The only saving grace here is that we're just above the lower BB and some month-long support, plus oversold indicators..  With a three day losing streak now, I'm not sure where the sellers will be found going forward.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        2      0       1           1       1.000     109

     And the winner is...

We are now closing in on a level of short-term oversoldedness from which a reversal ought to be coming soon.  But the market's been acting a bit on the anemic side of late.  It's possible we could see some bottoming action on Friday but on balance I'm going to have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..


  1. I enjoy reading your analyses. Thank you so much! Have a successful trading day!


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