Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2069.08.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

TRAVEL SWITZERLAND SPRING ALPINE MOUNTAIN FLOWER FIELD ART PRINT POSTER BB7645BOn Monday the Dow confirmed Friday's hammer with a nice 0.66% advance.  I wanted to wait for confirmation so I made it a conditional call and that worked out well.  ES oscillated about it pivot in the wee hours of the morning, taking until 6 AM before breaking to the upside.  The bears tried to drive it lower again shortly after the open until by mid-morning we were clearly above the pivot and then indeed closed higher.  It doesn't always work, but it works often enough to be useful.  Tonight it's time for another Night Owl Lite - no details, just conclusions.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentilly flat at 12:32 AM EDT with ES down just one tick.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2087.00 to 2069.08. ES.is now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        0      0       0           1       1.000       0

Note: When I make a correct conditional call, I increment that column, not the "right" column, but I do not count the daily Dow change in the "Dow points" column.  That seems like the only fair way to do it since the conditional call doesn't take effect until mid-morning of the trading day.
     And the winner is...

We had a rally Monday but it came on lower than normal volume and I'm not sure I find it convincing, particularly since there's no pin action in the futures tonight.  On the other hand, I can't come out with a bearish call because the charts aren't indicating that at all.  So all that leaves is Tuesday uncertain

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

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