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- Monday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2170.92. Holding below is bearish..
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
Last Friday was an interesting day. We finally got some range action with the biggest intraday move in over a month. The net result was still negative though with the Dow down another 53 points, with that its biggest loss in a month. In any case, the downtrend is now established so the question becomes when do we bottom out? We'll take a look at the charts for answers.
The VIX: Look at this giant doji in the VIX on Friday! After touching its upper BB for two days already, this sure looks like a sign we're going lower on Monday.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:18 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2172.75 to 2170.92. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator s back to bearish
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 1 3 5 0 0.000 120
And the winner is...
When looking for reversals, I like to look at the SPX Hi-Lo indicator and right now it stands at 97 which is a long way indeed from the level from which reversals usually come. Tonight we're seeing some reversal candles on the charts and the VIX seems to be wanting to go lower but its stochastic isn't on board yet. I don't think we're quite ready for a move higher but with the evidence so weak, once again I just have to call Monday uncertain.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.