Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2175.08.  Waiting for a break above or below.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Last night I mentioned a few vaguely bullish looking signs in the charts but also indicated I wasn't about to get suckered into calling Tuesday higher on that basis.  Good thing too, because after a rare triple digit gain on Monday the Dow abruptly reversed course on Tuesday, dumping 49 points to retrace most of Monday's gains.

The market is now clearly on edge over the Fed and upcoming jobs numbers.  (Personally, I don't believe they are going to raise rates in September).  The charts have not been our friend lately but we'll take a look at them anyway because the battery in my clandestine listening bug in the Fed boardroom has run down.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are once again unchanged at 1:09 AM EDT with ES completely flat. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2175.33 to 2175.08.  That leaves ES sitting exactly on its new pivot so there's no guidance from this indicator tonight either positive or negative.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       7           0       0.000     120

     And the winner is...

Waiting for Godot
The market's been wandering aimlessly for weeks now and tonight is about the best example of that yet with zero steering from any of the usual suspects.  We are truly waiting for Godot here and until he shows up, I will just have to call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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