Thursday, September 1, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher.
  • ES pivot 2168.42.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well there you have it.  I finished off the month of August with a record eight calls of "uncertain".  Looking back over the month, I'm still not sure what I could have done differently.  The market traded the month an about as tight a range as I've ever seen.  On Wednesday the Dow dropped another 53 points to end the months almost exactly where it began.  I do think we'll start to see a return to the usual swing of things after Labor Day but we're not quite there yet.

And speaking of, I will be taking all of next week off.  The Night Owl is going on a road trip and while I do expect to have Internet access, it won't be with my usual high bandwidth multi-montior setup.  I can't really put the blog together on a little 7" tablet so it's just as well it's a holiday week.

In the meantime, we cast a weather eye to the charts to see if they can tell us which way the wind will blow on Thursday.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2175.08 to 2168.42.  That puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator now becomes bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.000     120

     And the winner is...

The first days of most months are historically bullish and tonight for the first time in a long time we're seeing futures actually guiding higher.  So with that and some reversal signs on the charts I'm actually going to make a call for a change: Thursday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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