Monday, November 28, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2206.83.  Waiting for a break either higher or lower..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Well well well.  I thought nothing much would happen while I took Thanksgiving week off but I was wrong  Not only did the market hit new record highs, but we also finally got rid of Fidel Castro giving us not one but two reasons to celebrate.  I thought we were never going to see the end of this Methuselah.  And with that we now move on to round out the month of November as we eagerly anticipate the arrival of Santa and his fabled rally.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last week while I was snoozing, the VIX crashed through its major support at 13 down to the mid-12's.  While that's still a ways from year-long lows, we've come a long way from recent highs and this one is looking more oversold than anything right now.  It's hard to see what might send it lower from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:18 AM EST with ES down 0.19%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2198.75 to 2206.83.  That leaves ES exactly on top of its new pivot so this indicator is neither bullish nor bearish at the moment.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      3       5           1       0.624     487

     And the winner is...

Mondays are always the most difficult to call and that goes double for Mondays that follow Friday holidays.  Thursday holidays only make it harder.  Tonight, aside from being quite overbought short-term, I can't really find anything negative to say about the charts other than a small decline in the futures.  The regression trends are all positive, we're climbing up upper BB's, the VIX doesn't look ready to reverse, and there's obviously no overhead resistance when we're in record territory.  But because it's Sunday night and the futures are moving lower and ES is right on its pivot, I'm going to make another conditional call: if ES breaks above its pivot and stays there by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher.  But if it moves under the pivot, we close lower

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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