Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2202.83.  Holding below is bearish...
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

So I made a conditional call last night making the close dependent on the value of ES relative to its pivot mid-morning.  I don't know why this works and it doesn't always but this time it did.  ES made a couple of weak attempts to break above its pivot after the open but to no avail and the market did in fact close lower.  Not by much but lower is lower.  In any case, this changes the picture so let's take a fresh look at the charts as we move ahead to Tuesday.

VIX, daily

The technicals

The VIX:  After three days of wishy-washy action around the 12.5 region, the VIX took a 6.5% gap-up pop on Monday to reclaim the 13 handle and decisively send all the indicators rising off of oversold.  That also exits the descending RTC for a bullish setup.  Thing is, the candle is a hanging man.  Still the overall impression is bullish here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:38 AM EST with ES down 0.06%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2206.83 to 2202.83.   That now places ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120

September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314

November   4      3       5           2       0.667     487

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a fairly bearish looking picture as the broader market took a pause Monday after an impressive two-week run.  The trans underperformed the Dow, down 0.90% to a quarter percent.  And the VIX sure looks like it ha bottomed.   And Dr. Copper has taken a turn lower of his own after a nice one week run.  So there's a bit of a risk here but I'm just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.