Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2203.25. Holding below below is bearish...
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Wednesday turned out to be rather odd. Of course there was the big OPEC announcement (not that I believe it's going to amount to a hill of beans in the long run) and that seemed to be driving a lot of the action. Still by the closing bell we ended up very nearly where we had begun with the Dow up just2 and the SPX down 6. So November goes out with a whimper, not a bang and we look ahead to the jolly month of December. Will Santa show up with toys for all the good little traders or will he be bringing lumps of coal? There must be a pony somewhere in these charts.The technicals
The VIX: Well so much for the bearish evening star last night. On Wednesday the VIX laughed at that idea with a 3.33% gain on bullish engulfing pattern that mostly served to continue the indicators higher off of oversold. This is a bullish technical sign - but last night we had a bearish technical sign and that went nowhere. Foo.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are just slightly higher at 12:49 AM EST with ES up 0.05%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot is once again virtually unchanged from 2203.17 to 2203.25. But ES is now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
Accuracy:
average points
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304
August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120
September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
November 4 4 5 3 0.636 463
And the winner is...
Wednesday had a toppy feel to it with both the Dow and SPX putting in inverted hammers. The Dow has also now exited it latest rising RTC for a bearish trigger. And while the first day of most months is historically positive that's not particularly true of December. So while the general impression is bearish tonight I'd like to see how the dust settles around oil so I'm going to take a pass on this one and call Thursday uncertain. We may see some more bouncing around as the market looks for a new short-term direction.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.
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