Thursday, December 1, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2203.25.  Holding below below is bearish...
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Wednesday turned out to be rather odd.  Of course there was the big OPEC announcement (not that I believe it's going to amount to a hill of beans in the long run) and that seemed to be driving a lot of the action.  Still by the closing bell we ended up very nearly where we had begun with the Dow up just2 and the SPX down 6.  So November goes out with a whimper, not a bang and we look ahead to the jolly month of December.  Will Santa show up with toys for all the good little traders or will he be bringing lumps of coal?  There must be a pony somewhere in these charts.

The technicals

The VIX:  Well so much for the bearish evening star last night.  On Wednesday the VIX laughed at that idea with a 3.33% gain on  bullish engulfing pattern that mostly served to continue the indicators higher off of oversold.  This is a bullish technical sign - but last night we had a bearish technical sign and that went nowhere.  Foo.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are just slightly higher at 12:49 AM EST with ES up 0.05%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot is once again virtually unchanged from 2203.17 to 2203.25.   But ES is now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   4      4       5           3       0.636     463

     And the winner is...

Wednesday had a toppy feel to it with both the Dow and SPX putting in inverted hammers.  The Dow has also now exited it latest rising RTC for a bearish trigger.  And while the first day of most months is historically positive that's not particularly true of December.  So while the general impression is bearish tonight I'd like to see how the dust settles around oil so I'm going to take a pass on this one and call Thursday uncertain.  We may see some more bouncing around as the market looks for a new short-term direction.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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