Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday higher.
- ES pivot 2118.50. Holding above is bullish.
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader::no trade tonight
Whoa! That sure was interesting. I finally gave up and went to bed around 2:30 AM last night with the race still undecided and the futures all in a lather. But by the time I got up on Wednesday, the Dow was up and just kept climbing. By the end of the day we had a 257 point green candle that showed no sign whatsoever of all the excitement in the overnight. The Trumpocalypse proved to be as evanescent as a Hillary Clinton email.
The VIX: On Wednesday we got the biggest drop in the daily VIX in years a it tumbled over 23% on a giant red marubozu sending all the indicators lower. Amazing. I don't think I've ever seen a chart like this before.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EST with ES up 0.31%, having started something of a rally just after midnight. Wednesday's candle deserves a chart for this is the strangest thing I ever saw. Look at how last night's giant red candle mysteriously morphed into this bizarre gigantic hanging man. It also just touched its upper BB and sent the indicators overbought. This would seem to suggest a top in progress but last night's low was so distorted by election night panic, I'm not so sure we can really rely on this candle.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2132.58 to 2118.50. But ES is now back above its new pivot so this indicator flips over to bullish.
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393 July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304 August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120 September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
November 1 1 4 0 0.500 266
And the winner is...
With the VIX coming crashing back down to earth on Wednesday and a three white soldiers pattern in the Dow, SPX, and trans, there are no real bearish signs on the charts tonight. My only concern would be that the Dow has in three short days gone from below 18,000 to testing its all-time highs set back in August. But there's a fair deal of momentum going right now, something we haven't seen in a while and the overnight futures are guiding higher so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Thursday higher.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.