Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2120.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

So last week we got the Clinton Crash when the FBI (the Federal Bunglers Institute) gave reason to believe that Hillary was really a crook.  And then on Monday we got the Hillary Hike when Craven "Two Face" Comey changed his mind and decided that, surprise!, she was actually still just a tad "careless" (I'll have to remember that the next time I get caught speeding - "Gee officer, I wasn't breaking the law, I was just careless") after all..

And Mr. Market lapped it up, to the tune of 371 Dow points, ending highly overextended losing streaks in both the Dow and SPX.  Of course, you could have seen this coming from the technicals even before Comey dropped his latest bombshell.  He just juiced the process already underway and sent the Dow rocketing off its zero RSI in a big way.

But hey, I made money today so who am I to complain?  If it takes having a smarmy, smirking, lying, self-dealing, disingenuous, carpet bagging paranoid egomaniac for president, then so be it.  Meanwhile we move on to the election of the century.  At this point it's looking like a foregone conclusion, but then that's what they said about Brexit, wasn't it?  At least we live in interesting times.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.04%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot zooms from 2084.33 to 2120.83.  And even that wasn't enough to put ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314

November   1      1       2           0       0.500     266

     And the winner is...

I think Monday's action went a long way toward baking in the pop I was expecting should the Big Liar win the election on Tuesday.  As it stands I still think she's going to do it.  But then what do I know, I also thought Britain would vote against Brexit.  But with this big move already on the books, I don't see another major pop if she wins.  If she loses, we'll probably see some selling, though not 10 to 20% like some Chicken Littles are predicting.  Meanwhile, I'm expecting little movement on Tuesday, sort of like a pre-Fed day as people just sit around waiting for the results.  Accordingly, the only choice I have is to call Tuesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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