Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2132.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader:covered short at 17,597.

Recap

I'm glad I called Tuesday as uncertain because I was really expecting more hand-sitting ahead of the election and didn't think the market would keep stepping on the gas that hard after Monday's big run.  But in the end the Dow added another 73 points to close right back to its two month resistance of 18,334.  Tonight of course it's a very different story and one that I frankly wasn't expecting, along with, apparently, most everyone else.  So a quick chart, one trade, and we're done for the night.

ES, daily

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are end-of-the-world lower at 1:47 AM EST with ES own an amazing 88.50 points, or 4.04% as it slices right down through its 200 day MA (dotted orange line) in one swell foop.  Check it out, Jack --->

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2120.83 to 2132.58.  Thanks to the election results at the moment, you would need Jacques Cousteau to find ES and therefore this indicator now turns bearish.






Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314 November   1      1       3           0       0.500     266

Long faces in Camp Clinton - wonh wonh wonh.

     And the winner is...

Tonight of course it's deja-Brexit all over again with all the markets across the globe rushing headlong in a gerbil-like frenzy off the nearest cliff.  And just like Brexit, it happened right after the Dow hit its upper BB.  And I'm going to predict that, also just like Brexit, tomorrow morning the sun will still rise in the east, a day will still be 24 hours long, and life will go on.  It took all of three days to recover from the Brexageddon, and I'm sure it won't take much longer to recover from the Trumpocalypse.

I'd love to stick around for the final count but it's already getting late, even for the Night Owl.  Right now it's looking like The Donald may actually pull this off.  If so, then obviously we close lower Wednesday.  If somehow That Nasty Woman managed to squeak out a victory, then all the gloom and doom of the moment will be instantly forgotten.  But to quote the immortal Yogi Berra, "It ain't over til it's over".  And right now it still ain't over so unfortunately all I can do it call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

Tonight we finally covered the long-running short trade I put on in YM way back in July (thanks, Donald).  It went terribly wrong there for quite a while but I had confidence we'd see some results sooner or later.  I decided not to get too greedy when the market collapsed tonight and got out at 17,597 while the getting was good for a modest 74 point profit.  It's all on my Twitter feed live for all the non-believers out there.