Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2132.58.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader:covered short at 17,597.
Recap

I'm glad I called Tuesday as uncertain because I was really expecting more hand-sitting ahead of the election and didn't think the market would keep stepping on the gas that hard after Monday's big run.  But in the end the Dow added another 73 points to close right back to its two month resistance of 18,334.  Tonight of course it's a very different story and one that I frankly wasn't expecting, along with, apparently, most everyone else.  So a quick chart, one trade, and we're done for the night.


ES, daily
The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are end-of-the-world lower at 1:47 AM EST with ES own an amazing 88.50 points, or 4.04% as it slices right down through its 200 day MA (dotted orange line) in one swell foop.  Check it out, Jack --->

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2120.83 to 2132.58.  Thanks to the election results at the moment, you would need Jacques Cousteau to find ES and therefore this indicator now turns bearish.






Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120
September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       4           1       0.786     314
November   1      1       3           0       0.500     266