Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1926.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My apologies to all my readers for having missed last night's post. I had a family emergency involving one of my dogs, which required an all day trip to a large veterinary specialist hospital in another city. By the time I got back home there was no time left to study the market and I figured it was better to just skip it entirely then try to wing it and possibly be wrong. As it turned out Tuesday's action was pretty much general continuation. So now that we're back on track let's move ahead and figure out where Thursday is going.





The technicals

The Dow:  Monday night I mentioned some doubts as to whether the rally we had could be sustained into Tuesday. Turns out it couldn't as we got another day of losses. Those were followed on Wednesday with more losses with the Dow down 0.31% on a short stubby hammer. Indicators are still a fair ways away from oversold but the stochastic is finally starting to curve around for a bullish crossover. So now we have at least a minor indication of a reversal but we remain in a tight descending RTC. Bottom line, it's still too soon to call the Dow higher on that basis.

The VIX:  Well this was one unusual thing I did miss on Tuesday. The VIX put in a huge inverted hammer that looked like an excellent reversal sign. And indeed on Wednesday the VIX moved lower by 1.38% to finish with a perfect doji star. Indicators are wandering around between overbought and oversold but the stochastic looks like it is now moving into position for a bearish crossover. Another unusual point is that the VIX fell on a day when the market was also lower.  Overall the VIX remains in a descending RTC so I'd say there's a good chance that we move lower again on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower once again at 12:09 AM EDT with ES down 0.34%. After a week in a steep descending RTC , on Wednesday ES put in a decent reversal candle in the form of a long-legged spinning top. Indicators have now fallen very nearly to oversold and the stochastic is definitely curving around in preparation for a bullish crossover.Unfortunately, ES is showing no interest in the wee hours of going any place other than down again as it remains in a steep descending RTC.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1938.25 to 1926.92.  But even that isn't enough to put ES back above its new pivot as it just continues falling away from it.  So this indicator continues bearish tonight.

Dollar index:  Monday night I mentioned that the dollar looked bullish. And on Tuesday it did indeed gap up on a stubby spinning top. That was followed on Wednesday with a 0.25% decline on a red candle that formed a perfect bearish engulfing pattern. It also sent indicators slightly lower just before they reached overbought. The stochastic is not yet in position for a bearish crossover but it looks like that could happen very soon. Overall this chart looks negative for Thursday.

Euro:  Monday night I mentioned the euro fall through its 200-day MA as a bearish sign. And indeed on Tuesday it continued to move lower closing at 1.1147. Then on Wednesday it staged a comeback with a bullish engulfing pattern to recoup all of Tuesday's losses and then some, closing right back up to 1.1222. But in the overnight it seems to be giving some of that back again. However we now have indicators rising off of oversold and a just-completed bullish stochastic crossover. So the majority seems to vote that the euro goes higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  After a bearish trigger on Monday the trans took a bad fall on Tuesday. That was followed by a smaller 0.44% decline on Wednesday on a small red hammer. The indicators are now all falling towards oversold and the stochastic is beginning to curve around for a bullish crossover. So we do have a fair reversal warning in place and there's a chance the trans could finally move higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       6           1       0.667   1102

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a decidedly mixed picture with most of the charts looking ready to move higher but the futures guiding lower and oil looking ready to take another leg lower.  And with the overall bias clearly now running to the downside, it's just too risky to call Thursday higher without all the stars lined up.  So I just have to shrug and call Thursday uncertain.  Sometimes that's just how it is.

Single Stock Trader

I've been unable to get behind Verizon for some time now. It's just been one thing after another with this stock and we haven't really had any good swing buy opportunities. After a possible doji star reversal warning on Tuesday, it was disconfirmed entirely on Wednesday with another leg down. But things may be about to change because on Wednesday Verizon finally hit its lower BB and indicators have now gone oversold. More importantly the stochastic looks like it's finally about to execute a bullish crossover. However we remain in a descending RTC so we're not quite at my preferred buy point yet. But Thursday we'll be watching very carefully.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1956.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well Mr. Market really fooled me on Monday. I sure wasn't expecting a 126 point gain in the Dow. Of course I can't complain since I'm always net long anyway but things don't always work out exactly the way we planned so we just forget about it and move on to Tuesday. Let me add that there's a chance I may not be able to publish Tuesday night since I have an all day event that may not leave me enough time to put together the usual post

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow started off strong and then kept right on rising until about 11 AM when Honest Hillary, who couldn't keep her fingers off her keyboard, started twitting about how she was shocked, shocked to find that that drug prices are high That set off a decline but the Dow nevertheless managed to finish up 0.77% on the day. And that left the indicators all moving higher even though they never hit oversold. Except for the stochastic which continues to fall and is still showing no sign of a bullish crossover. Monday's action also traded outside the rising RTC which now makes it an official bearish trigger. So it remains to be seen if Monday's rally can be sustained into Tuesday

The VIX:  And on Monday the VIX put in a tall red candle confirming Friday's gap-up spinning top.  With indicators still oversold but not going anywhere, this just looks continued lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EDT with ES down 0.23%.  On Monday ES put in a small bullish piercing pattern but one which still traded outside its rising RTC and that is a bearish trigger.  The new overnight is forming another dark cloud cover, all of which leaves this chart too tough to call, though it looks more bearish than not.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1958.25 to 1956.83. And that's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar took a huge 1.09% gap-up pop to blast right back up through its 200 day MA.  That completes a bullish stochastic crossover as the indicators all move higher just off oversold.  So this chart is now technically bullish.

Euro:  And on Monday the euro confirmed Friday's dark cloud cover with a tall gap-down red candle to close back to 1.1206, and busting down through its own 200 day MA.  Indicators continue falling off overbought so there's nothing bullish here other than a weak rally attempt as I write this.

Transportation:  After a big dump Friday, on Monday the trans retraced a quarter of that but with an unconvincing inverted hammer.  With indicators still falling just off oversold, it doesn't look particularly bullish to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       6           0       0.625   1102

     And the winner is...

With ES so close to its pivot and with a few conflicting directions among the charts, I'm going to do a conditional call tonight - if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below and stays there, we close lower

Single Stock Trader

Verizon was one of the weaker members of the Dow on Monday but nonetheless managed to put in a small gain that was important because it respected support at 44.56. It was also enough to cause the indicators to begin moving higher before ever reaching oversold although the stochastic has still yet to begin turning around for a bullish crossover. So while this move was encouraging it's still not my preferred swing trade buy entry.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 1958.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The selling resumed on Friday with typical triple witching madness on huge volume even for an options expiration day that sent just about everything lower leaving the charts with awash in a sea of red with some candles that changed things in interesting ways. So let's move on to the last full week of September and see if we can start making some calls again now that we have the Fed and op-ex out of the way.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer by dumping 290 points on a tall red candle. That was enough to drop it right out of its most recent rising RTC for a bearish setup. The indicators all continued falling from overbought and the stochastic has now completed a clear bearish crossover. So there's nothing at all bullish looking about this chart for Monday.

The VIX:  Somewhat surprisingly perhaps on Friday given all the market chaos the VIX did rise but only 5.39%. And it did that on a small gap-up red spinning top. The indicators remain oversold but not dramatically so and we do now seem to have a completed bullish stochastic crossover. However that's in conflict with the reversal warning from the candles so overall I can't call this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.41%. On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer with its worst loss in nearly two weeks. That sent the indicators while moving lower off overbought. But they're still a long way from oversold. It was also enough of a move to send us out of a rising RTC for a bearish setup. And the new overnight seems to be continuing that trend with some further losses so there's nothing really bullish about this chart tonight .

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1987.00 to 1958.25.  ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  After a nasty fall on Thursday the dollar gapped down early Friday but then spent rest of the day climbing back up to retrace half of Thursday's losses on a classic bullish piercing pattern. The stochastic remains threaded out at oversold levels but the indicators now look to have bottomed at oversold and are rising again. So this chart looks higher on Monday.

Euro:  And similarly on Friday the euro put in a dark cloud cover on a wide-ranging lopsided spinning top that finished by retracing half of Thursday's gains for a close at 1.1368. The new Sunday overnight seems to be confirming the bearish candle with a big gap down as indicators continue to fall off of overbought. So it looks fairly certain that the euro will close lower on Monday.

Transportation:  Friday's chart of the trans looks just about exactly like the Dow so everything I wrote about the Dow applies here too. There's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       6           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

Historically September is just a terrible month and this coming week is the worst week in September with the Dow being down 19 of the last 24 years according to The Stock Trader's Almanac. And right now it doesn't look like this year is going to be any different . Tonight all the charts look bearish so it looks like I'm just going to have to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Once again last Friday Verizon joined the rest of the lemmings diving off the cliff. It dropped 1.46% on a tall red candle that broke support around 44.68. But even with that the indicators are still not yet oversold and the stochastic is a long way from even beginning a bullish crossover. o even after three straight days of losses this dog is still not a swing trade buy.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1987.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was certainly interesting. The market went essentially nowhere as expected until 2 PM and then as soon as the Fed announcement came out all hell broke loose as Mr. Market went right off his meds again. First the market was up then it was down then was way up ad then finally it spent the rest of the afternoon sinking until the Dow finished with a modest 65 point loss.  I'll have to seriously consider taking up day trading if this kind of thing continues.  In the meantime we got an interesting candle so let's take a look at the implications for Friday.
The technicals

The Dow:  In the end, after all the months of endless speculation and hoopla surrounding the question of whether the Fed would raise rates in September or not the end result was pretty anti-climactic. I will point out that the Night Owl was one of the people who predicted there would be no rate increase in September. What we did get on Thursday was a small 0.39% loss in the Dow with a tall inverted hammer that caused the indicators to peak just above overbought and begin moving lower. The stochastic is also now well positioned for a bearish crossover. While we remain in a rising RTC the stage seems to be set for a move lower on Friday.

The VIX:  With all the crazy action on Thursday you would think the VIX would have spiked higher. Instead it actually fell 1%. But it did it on a tall spindly spinning top that seems to have caused the indicators to bottom at oversold. With the stochastic threaded out at a low level it is useless for prediction though. However we now at least have a reversal warning so it's not out of the question that the VIX might move higher on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:39 AM EDT with ES up 0.16%. Like the Dow, on Thursday ES put in a an inverted hammer with a giant upper shadow. The real body of this candle is a bearish harami and the indicators are back to overbought. We also have a new bearish stochastic crossover and the overnight is gapping lower making it look like there is more downside in store on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1979.92 to 1987.00. That's enough to put ES back below its pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After a failed attempt at reclaiming its 200 day MA on Wednesday , on Thursday the dollar simply gave up the ghost and gapped down with a huge 0.91% loss that really got going as soon as the Fed announcement came out. There is nothing bullish about this chart tonight and with the lower BB now not too far away it looks like there's more downside in store on Friday.

Euro:  And of course similarly on Thursday the euro put in a tall green candle to break resistance convincingly at 1.1359 before closing at 1.1413 - its best close since August 25th. With a confirmation of Wednesday's spinning top and support from the 200 day MA there's nothing really bearish about this chart tonight other than the fact that the euro might have run a little too far too fast. The overnight is running slightly higher but at the moment is forming a spinning top of its own and so it's not clear whether the euro has enough gas in the tank to continue higher on Friday.

Transportation:  When the smoke cleared Thursday the trans put in a tall inverted hammer just like the Dow. However unlike the Dow they actually managed to gain 0.39% as opposed to fall 0.39%. That keeps them in a rising RTC and even though the indicators remain quite overbought this is only a tentative reversal sign and one which requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       5           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

There's a small rally attempt going on in ES right now as I write but the overall look of the charts tonight is bearish.  It looks like our ascending triangle breakout is fizzling.  Unfortunately, our reversal signs, like the VIX require confirmation.  And to top it all off, Friday is a triple-witching.  So I regretfully have to call Friday uncertain.  Perhaps with this crazy week finally behind us we can get back to calling the close next week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

When all the shouting was over Verizon was not one of the winners on the Dow, suffering a gap-down 2% loss on Thursday that sent the indicators continuing lower off overbought and also formed a bearish stochastic crossover. The candle is a wide-ranging spinning top but with the indicators still nowhere near oversold it still isn't a swing trade buy.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1959.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well we're coming down to the wire here.  On Wednesday the markets put in another non-trivial gain as everybody looks forward to Thursday's big big big announcement from the Fed. It seems that Mr Market is pricing in a zero interest rate rise. Whether that's true or not remains to be seen so we go ahead with the chart run-down as usual for whatever it may be worth.

The technicals

The Dow:   The Dow gained another significant 140 points to confirm Tuesday's ascending triangle breakout. That sent the indicators all overbought but the stochastic has yet to begin a bearish crossover. Of course none of this means a whole lot since everybody is now waiting for the Fed decision on Thursday.

The VIX:  Last night I said it looked like the VIX was likely going lower again on Wednesday but we might get some sort of a reversal hammer. Well nice try but instead the VIX just kept right on going lower with a 5.28% loss on a tall red marubozu. That took the indicators back to oversold and sent them all running lower with no sign of a bullish stochastic crossover as we remain in a two week long descending RTC. So there are no real bullish signs on this chart tonight at all.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down 0.15%. ES made it two in a row on Wednesday with another decent advance that broke through resistance at 1980. The indicators continue to rise and are now just overbought.. There's nothing really bearish about the technicals here tonight aside from the fact that the overnight seems to be sagging a bit. I don't know if this reflects profit taking or uncertainty about Thursday's Fed decision. But it does call into question whether ES has enough gas in the tank to move higher on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1959.42 to 2085.92. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Will the dollar definitely fooled me on Wednesday. I thought after Tuesday's big advance it still had enough gas left to break through its 200-day MA on Wednesday but it was not to be. After a brief attempt to break through it fell back and never challenged again, ending with a 0.25% loss. The resulting candle is a bearish harami though the indicators remain all oversold. The stochastic is threaded out and so overall this chart looks negative Thursday.

Euro:  Last night I thought the euro looked like it was going lower on Wednesday. And indeed it opened lower but then spent the rest of the day recovering to close at 1.1294. The result was a tall hammer that successfully tested the 200 day MA. That still leaves the indicators overbought however the stochastic has a completed bearish crossover. On the other hand the new overnight is moving higher again gapping up significantly. And to complicate matters Wednesday's trade was outside the rising RTC for a bearish set up. The net result is that this chart has no direction at all and so I'm not calling it for Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I noted that the trans had no bearish signs in sight and it proved to be true as on Thursday they gained another 0.24%. But with indicators now pretty overbought and the stochastic threaded out at a high level and a short stubby spinning top sitting at the top of Tuesday's giant green candle, it's not clear that the trans have any more gas left in the tank for a further advance on Thursday. But with the Fed announcement coming out that's all moot anyway.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       4           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

I normally call Fed days as "uncertain" as a matter of course.  But Thursday's announcement is as uncertain as they get.  The talking heads are all over the place on this one.  Will the Fed raise or pass?  Will it be 0.25% or "12 1/2 basis points"?  Will it be now or December?  Or next year?  Who knows.  Personally, I'm just sitting tight and waiting.  We'll see.  In the meantime, I can't think of a better occasion to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

It was good to be cautious about Verizon last night because on Wednesday it came in dead last being the only loser in the entire Dow. The resulting dark cloud cover coupled with overbought indicators and a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover all makes this look more like a short for Thursday then any sort of a buy.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 1959.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The market ended up doing quite nicely on Tuesday moving higher in pretty much a straight line all day long before giving back trust a tad into the close for a 229 point gain in the Dow.  That finally gives us some interesting charts to chew on so let's get to them as this momentous week rolls on. Op-ex and interest rates and triple witching, oh my!


The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I mentioned the possibility of a rising triangle here and with a 1.4% gain it sure looks like we got a breakout on Tuesday.  But does a one day pop constitute a new trend, particularly in such a tricky week?  I don't think so.  This one could just as easily fall back on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Here's a good example - last night it appeared the VIX might move higher but instead it just continued lower, down another 7% on Tuesday.  Indicators are still not yet oversold but we're now near support around 22.40.  There's no immediate reversal in sight but we could possibly get a hammer on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 2:01 AM EDT with ES down 0.14%.  ES had a very good day Tuesday breaking out of recent resistance at 1958.  But the indicators have just gone overbought and the overnight seems to be faltering.  That suggests the possibility of a nervous mean-reversion on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1948.25 to 1959.42.  ES is back above its new pivot so this indicator is now bullish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to commit to a dollar gain on Tuesday and that's a shame because it had a nice 0.39% green marubozu for a bullish engulfing pattern that was stopped only by its 200 day MA.  Indicators are now oversold and the stochastic just squeaked out a bullish crossover so this one looks higher on Wednesday.

Euro:  At least I caught Tuesday's move lower in the euro as it slid back down to 1.1290 just touching its 200 day MA before bouncing off it a bit.  The indicators are now overbought and the stochastic has completed a bearish crossover.  Tuesday's trade was also outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  The overnight though seems to be attempting a rally but everything else suggests lower on Wednesday.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans continued their latest uptrend with a big 1.85% gain.  Indicators are back to overbought but this tall green marubozu is hardly a bearish sign

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       3           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

Ordinarily I'd say a good day like Tuesday with a rising triangle exit would call for continued higher, but with all the booby traps in place this week, it's possible the traders may simply take profits on Wednesday as they await the Fed.  And the overnight futures seem to be supporting that, so far at least.  So I'll just have to call Wednesday uncertain again.  Oh, and since everyone else in the universe has weighed in on this, I'll add my own prognostication - the Fed won't raise rates until December.

Single Stock Trader

VZ was swept up in the3 general Dow euphoria on Tuesday and broke out above recent resistance but that just makes it look even less like my preferred buy pattern so I'll just watch this one some more.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 1958.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a swing trade buy.

Recap

I took a chance last night by calling the market higher on Monday and despite an early spike higher was finally proven wrong as the Dow finished losing 62 points. The markets continue their nervous progression towards Fed day so we look to the charts for some indication of Tuesday as this important op-ex week rolls on.
The technicals

The Dow: 

On Monday the Dow put in a small dark cloud cover to end a short winning streak at two. The area around 16,475 is proving to be just too tough for it right now. And yet it continues to put in higher lows day after day. The indicators also continue to be mixed as is the overall picture so it's difficult to tell what to make of this particular pattern tonight.

I mentioned something the other night about what looks like a symmetrical triangle in ES. But looking at the chart of the Dow it's looking more like an ascending triangle and if that's the case one would expect a break when it comes to be higher. The pattern is nearly complete and oddly enough should be finished right around the time of the set announcement this week.

The VIX:  After two days of declines, on Monday the VIX gained 4.5% but did it on a small spinning top in harami position. That was enough to send the indicators starting to move slightly higher from oversold . however the overall trend of the ex continues to remain lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:57 AM EDT with ES up 0.10%. This will be our last night looking at the U contract of ES. On Monday ES put in a fat spinning top sitting in dark cloud cover position The indicators remain confused with RSI falling but momentum rising. And the new overnight seems to be trying to stage something of a small rally. So overall this chart is somewhat less than totally clear.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 1953.33 to 1958.25. That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wasn't ready to call the dollar higher on Monday but it put in a tiny 0.03% advance anyway with a small red spinning top sitting right at the bottom of Friday's big decline. Indicators continue falling though but have not yet reached oversold. So there's only a weak reversal warning here and once again I can't call the Dollar higher just yet.

Euro:  Monday's chart of the euro is a bit more clear. It gave us a nice red spinning top sitting right at the top of Friday's big punch through its 200-day MA to close at 1.3333. That left the indicators highly overbought and the stochastic just in position for a bearish crossover. The new overnight is putting in a small spinning top at the bottom of Mondays candle so this one looks like it has a fair chance of moving lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  The trans continue to be unable to break resistance around 8060 and on Monday lost 0.45% on a red bearish engulfing pattern. The indicators have now begun falling after just reaching overbought. However the trans remain in a rising RTC. Still the current pattern suggests lower to come.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       2           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

The nervous congestion in the markets continued on Monday as everybody awaits the big decision from the Fed later this week. Therefore I don't think there's much point in my trying to call the market one way or the other, so I will have to content myself with simply calling Tuesday uncertain.
Single Stock Trader

 Verizon continues to confound. After Friday's bullish confirmation of last Thursday's spinning top, on Monday it instead lost $0.07 on a dark cloud cover. None of which means much of anything since it is subject to the same confusion the rest of the market and will give us no clarity until after the Fed decision. In the meantime it is still not a swing trade buy.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 1953.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

On Friday morning the market had me wondering where I'd gone wrong with my call for a higher close after opening with a nearly triple-digit loss.  But while I was contemplating that, the Dow reversed course and finally zig-zagged its way higher to finish with a decent 103 point gain.  We now enter possibly the most important week of the year for it features not only op-ex but also the crucial and long awaited Fed decision on whether or not to raise interest rates.  It should be an interesting ride to say the least so lets figure out which way it will begin on Monday.
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The technicals

The Dow:  After a spinning top reversal on Thursday and what looked like a little bullish stochastic crossover I was pretty sure Friday was going to go higher and in the end it did with a 0.63% gain. But the candle was a hanging man and the stochastic went from a bullish crossover right back to a bearish crossover. The indicators are also confused now with RSI rising but momentum falling. We seem to be in a congestion zone vaguely between 16,140 and 16,536. This probably reflects ongoing uncertainty regarding the upcoming Fed decision and I don't think this is going to change much between now and Wednesday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I said it looked like there was more downside in store for the VIX on Friday and that's just what happened with another 4.8% decline giving us two black crows on the charts and indicators that have now just gone oversold. The stochastic remains threaded out on the floor and is of no use to us at the moment. But the overall gestalt since last month's giant spike continues a general downward trend. And without a bullish reversal candle in sight there could be at least one more day of selling here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.24 %, Last Thursday night I pointed out what look like a developing symmetrical triangle in ES. And on Friday a small hanging man type candle continued to convert confirm that with a gain that stopped exactly on the upper bounding line of this triangle. The pattern is essentially complete tonight but here's something interesting. We're seeing a gap-up overnight that is moving ES to the upside out of this triangle. That's highly unusual as most of the time these things exit in the same direction from which they were entered and in this case that would mean lower.  But it's still early - this may be just another fake-out.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1948.42 to 1953.33. A weekend rally still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I said that the dollar looked distinctly bearish after punching through its 200-day MA. Then on Friday it indeed lost another 0.26% leaving us with three black crows. The indicators continue falling but have not yet hit oversold, therefore it is still too early to call this chart higher on Monday.

Euro:  And in typical mirror-image fashion, on Friday the euro continued higher disconfirming Thursday's green spinning top but with a hanging man. I was right not to commit to a reversal on Friday.  This move also exited our latest descending RTC for a bullish setup. The indicators are all rising now but have not yet hit overbought and there's some bullish pin action in the overnight which makes it look quite possible that we will see further upside on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I said the trans looked higher again for Friday and that proved to be true with another 0.26% advance. But that happened on a hanging man and with the indicators now all overbought and the stochastic just about in position for a bearish crossover we have a reversal warning. But it's one which requires confirmation and therefore I cannot call the trans lower just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314 September  5      1       2           0       0.833   1290

     And the winner is...

This is sure to be a tricky week on the Street.  I will obviously be calling Wednesday as uncertain ahead of the Fed.  That leaves Monday and Tuesday.  I think we're just going to get more congestion until the air is cleared.  In the meantime, technically, things look mildly bullish tonight so I'm just going to have to go with that and reluctantly call Monday higher.  I'm not looking for a big pop though.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon finished Friday middle of the pack in the Dow with a $0.27 gain that nonetheless confirmed Thursday's lopsided spinning top. But like the Dow itself the indicators are now quite confused running randomly between oversold and overbought. Technically it looks higher for Monday but this is not a swing trade buy for me.

Friday higher

The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 1948.42  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I'm very glad I noticed a sudden upturn in the futures in the wee hours of Wednesday night and changed my Thursday call from bearish to merely uncertain. The overall market managed to finish with modest gains - always a good thing. It was also a welcome relief from the series of wild swings intraday we've been seeing recently. So let's move on to Friday as we complete this holiday-shortened week . 

The technicals

The Dow:  As it turns out the Dow gained a respectable 77 points on Thursday on a lopsided spinning top. That also unwound the stochastic for a narrow bullish crossover from a high level which is an encouraging sign. This isn't the most bullish pattern in the world but I'd give better than even odds of advancing further on Friday.

The VIX:  On Thursday the VIX lost 7% on a classic dark cloud cover. That sent RSI moving lower and the stochastic just squeaked out a bearish crossover from a low level. The latter is often good for a day or two of continued lower. Therefore I'd say there's more downside in store here on Friday.

ES daily

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:59 AM EDT with ES up 0.35%. After a rocky start yesterday evening ES telegraphed a move higher around 1:30 AM and indeed managed to close with a long-legged green spinning top on Thursday. But here's something interesting , take a look at this chart. It sure looks to me like ES is developing a symmetrical triangle and if that's the case then that's really bad news for the markets because these patterns generally exit in the same direction from which they were entered. So given the fact that this one was entered in a big crash last month the next leg would likely be lower. And from the looks of it the pattern is nearly complete. If this follows through I will be looking for another leg down next week.  But Friday at the moment is looking higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1956.75 to 1948.42.   And that, plus the drift higher overnight is enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator is back to bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that it looked like they was still more downside available for the dollar on Thursday and was that was a very good call indeed as the dollar slid a massive 0.60% to punch right through its 200-day MA at 64.08 on a tall red marubozu. With two black crows in place, falling indicators, and the 200 MA gone this chart looks distinctly bearish for Friday.

Euro:  Similarly I called the euro higher for Thursday and that's also just what happened as it rose smartly to close at 1.1285 stopping right on its own 200 day MA. However that typically offers some pretty strong resistance and indeed in the overnight we now see the euro moving back lower again. That has had the effect of sending RSI starting to move lower too. But the stochastic continues to rise and has yet to begin curving around for a bearish crossover so what we have here is a warning of a possible move lower on Friday but something that requires confirmation.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans handily outperformed the Dow with a 0.93% advance compared to the Dow's 0.47%. That also broke resistance around 8015 and keeps us in a rising RTC. Indicators also continue to rise but have not yet hit overbought. So the overall impression of this chart for Friday now looks bullish - quite a reversal from last night.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  4      1       2           0       0.800   1187

     And the winner is...

In the space of one day, the technicals have gone from bearish to bullish - such are the vagaries of life with the VIX in the mid-20's.  So assuming there's no untoward announcements from any Byg Wygs overnight, I'd say we round out the week with Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  Next week should be  really interesting.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday the Verizon was one of the Dow's weaker players gaining just $0.07 on a narrow lopsided spinning top. But that came right at the lower end of Wednesday's tall red bearish engulfing pattern. The net result is that the indicators are now all over the place with RSI and OBV rising but momentum falling and money flow flat. In any case none of that makes for my preferred setup therefore this is once again not a swing buy.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1956.75  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I was pretty sure the market was going higher on Wednesday. We had a nice tall green marubozu and the indicators looked like they were rising towards overbought. But Mr. Market fooled me and instead the Dow plunged with another triple digit decline to fall right back into its recent consolidation zone. Is there no end to this? We check the charts for clues to Thursday.
The technicals

The Dow:  Since last month's big dump, the Dow has been unable to put together more than two in a row in either direction. That trend continued on Wednesday when it fell 239 for its third triple point move in a row. Clearly volatility is the word as it has been for the past month. I thought we had a chance of moving higher and indeed the Dow took a big leap out the gate Wednesday morning but that was it. It was all downhill from there. That left the indicators all continuing to descend from overbought and now with a tall bearish engulfing pattern in place, this chart just looks bearish for Thursday.

The VIX:  Last night it wasn't very clear what the VIX was going to do on Wednesday. The wide-ranging green candle we got on Wednesday was proof enough of that. In the end we got a small 5.34% gain. That leaves the indicators stuck halfway between oversold and overbought but with a completed bullish stochastic crossover and a bullish engulfing pattern now in place it looks like this chart has more upside potential than downside risk.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:40 AM EDT with ES down 0.08%. So much for Tuesday's bullish engulfing pattern. On Wednesday ES began with good intentions with a sharp move higher. But that was all it had and it spent the rest of the day falling apart. The net result was a good bearish engulfing pattern. With the new overnight confirming that with a continued move lower this chart looks nothing but bearish for Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1950.08 to 1956.75. But that now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:   I also missed the dollar on Thursday. Wednesday night I thought it was going to lower but instead it gapped up early, although it did finally came back in to end the day up all of 0.02%. That leaves it now in a four-day consolidation range with the indicators continuing to fall off of overbought towards oversold. In general that looks bearish except for the fact that we are now almost down to some decent three day support. On the whole though I have to think there is still more downside available here on Thursday.

Euro: At least last night I had the sense to equivocate on the euro after a wide ranging spinning top on Tuesday. On Wednesday it put in a second wide-ranging candle, this one a small real bodied red hanging man which again is a reversal warning. But in the new overnight it looks like that has also come to nothing. as the euro continues significantly higher in the new overnight dragging the indicators higher with it. That all looks like a good setup for a higher close on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally I was also wrong about the trans. After a tall green marubozu on Tuesday, I thought there was more room to run higher on Wednesday. But it was not to be and instead we lost 0.71% on a small bearish engulfing pattern. The indicators are not yet quite overbought but the stochastic has just squeaked out a bearish crossover. So overall this chart looks negative for Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  4      1       1           0       0.800   1187

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are all looking decidedly more bearish than last night, and that includes the futures.  With the VIX still floating around above 25 I may live to regret this but the only logical course of action seems to be to call Thursday lower.

1:30 AM Update: Due to a sudden spike in ES, possibly due to some comments that just came out from the BOJ, I'm revising my call for Thursday to simply uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

I was a bit surprised last night about Verizon's advance on Tuesday but I wasn't ready to commit to a buy. Good thing too because on Wednesday it formed the mother of all bearish engulfing patterns to close down 1% on a tall red marubozu. That sent the indicators all continuing lower, including the stochastic, so this chart definitely looks bearish tonight. Still no buy here.

Wednesday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 1950.08  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Despite what looked like a bearish technical pattern last night the futures prevailed and Mr. Market had a great day on Tuesday, possibly due to some good news out of China. Who knows. I don't even pay any attention to any of that anymore. My position is that you can't believe anything they say, good or bad. So on we go to Wednesday to see where the charts may lead us next as this holiday shortened week progresses.


The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow confirmed historical precedents by rocketing higher right out of the gate and then continuing on to close on the highs of the day with a handy 2.42% advance. Looking at the daily chart one can imagine a double bottom now in place over the last week . Interestingly, Tuesday's action has also caused the stochastic to curve back around just about into position for a bullish crossover from a high level. And as I always say those are often good for a day or two of higher prices following. With the Dow now looking like it has broken out of its recent week-long congestion area I'd say this chart looks good to move higher again on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that the VIX looks like it was ready to move higher again on Tuesday. That was of course completely wrong as the VIX instead confirmed Monday's tall spinning top and then gapped right back down again to close more than 10% and below its levels of last Friday. But it did it on yet another doji star. T hat makes three in a row. This would be a classical bearish tri-star pattern except for the fact that that is entered from below whereas this one is entered on a descending trend from above.

That just leaves us with indicators that are totally confused with RSI rising but momentum falling, and the stochastic continue to be threaded out at a low level. Tuesday's doji would suggest there is a possibility of the VIX moving higher on Wednesday and with the indicators still closer to oversold than overbought that still might happen.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:00 AM EDT with ES up 0.67%.  ES had a fantastic day on Tuesday putting in a tall green marubozu that handily cleared three days' resistance to close at 1966. The indicators are still not yet overbought and the stochastic in fact has generated a bullish crossover from a high level just like the Dow did. This all makes me think that despite Tuesday's big gains iES might still have enough gas left in the tank to continue higher on Wednesday. The fact that the overnight continues moving higher tends to support that view.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1926.25 to 1950.08. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night the dollar was looking too tricky for me to call. On Tuesday turns out it lost 0.26% to fall right back to where it opened last Friday. However we now have three consecutive days of the dollar putting in lower highs and that was enough to send the indicators moving lower off of overbought peaks. We also now have a stochastic that has completed a bearish crossover so I would say Tuesday's candle points to continued lower on Wednesday.

Euro:  At least I got the euro correct. Last night I said it had a good chance of closing higher on Tuesday and so it did, back up to 1.1186 on a tall spinning top, the second one in a row. All the indicators now continue moving higher off of oversold and we have a bullish stochastic crossover in place. However the new overnight is moving lower after having gapped up, now calling into question whether this is the start of a new rally or just another fake-out breakout like we saw last week.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans outperformed the Dow with a giant 2.81% advance that clearly broke recent resistance at 7908. All the indicators continue rising but are not yet overbought so with a tall green marubozu now in place there are no bearish signs on this chart .

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  4      0       1           0       1.000   1424

     And the winner is...

With no bearish technical indications to speak of on the charts tonight and some decent follow-though in the overnight futures, it doesn't seem unreasonable to call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night Verizon wasn't looking at all like my preferred swing trade buy set up, but on Tuesday it got caught up in the general market euphoria and gapped up anyway over 2 and a quarter percent to put in a green hanging man. But that also caused the stochastic to suddenly curve back around just shy of a bullish crossover. And with the other indicators having arrested their fall from overbought and now moving higher again it looks like VZ may continue higher on Wednesday - but this is still not my preferred buy setup.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 1926.25  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night I thought the market was looking toppy what with a bunch of doji warnings on the charts and then sure enough on Friday the Dow lost 272 points. We now face a holiday shortened week with all of the usual problems that implies. So let's take a look at the charts and figure out where Tuesday is going.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's tall doji star with a tall red candle that nevertheless respected support just above 16,000.  However, it also sent all the indicators moving lower before they ever even reached overbought.  In particular the stochastic formed a clear bearish crossover so there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  On Friday the VIX gave us another doji star - this one gapping up eight and a half percent from Thursday's doji star . The three-day result is something of a cross between a bullish morning star and a tristar pattern, also bullish. With the indicators now oversold and the stochastic quite low and ready for a bullish crossover of its own this chart looks ready to move higher again on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:18 AM EDT with ES up 0.52%. On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer to put in a tall red candle. But the indicators are now completely confused with RSI falling, momentum rising, the stochastic falling from a completed bear crossover, but OBV also rising. The notable point here is that the new Monday night overnight is putting in a strong bullish piercing pattern having already retraced most of Friday's losses. This makes it look like a rally may be coming on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1953.83 to 1926.25.  And that was just enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns back to bullish.

Dollar index:  After a big jump on Thursday the dollar continued its wayward ways on Friday unable to make any headway to finish with a 0.19% loss on an inverted hammer that sent the indicators starting to descend off of overbought. The stochastic is completely threaded out at a high level and therefore is useless for predictions. The resulting Friday candle is a bullish harami but with the dollar so nervous lately I can't call this one tonight.

Euro:  And despite two black crows on Friday I wasn't ready to call the euro lower on Friday. That's a good thing too because it actually rose on a spinning top to close back up to 1.1150. The indicators are still oversold but now rising and the stochastic remains lying on the floor completely threaded out. But with support respected at 1.1090 and an overnight that's moving higher it looks like the euro has a good chance of closing up on Tuesday.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans fell on a similar looking chart to the Dow - a red candle following a doji star. But the damage was only a little more than half of the Dow. Indicators have started to fall off of overbought but the stochastic has yet to begin curving around for a bearish crossover. Overall though in the absence of any bullish signs it looks like this chart may have more downside left to it.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314 September  3      0       1           0       1.000   1034

     And the winner is...

According to The Stock trader's Almanac the first day after Labor Day is historically quite bullish, and it's looking like that may be the case this year too. With the market struggling to find any sense of short-term direction I'm going to go with the futures tonight. While a 0.5% gain in the overnight isn't as big as the spectacular moves we've seen recently, it's still more than enough for me to call Tuesday higher.


Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night once again I refused to call Verizon a swing trade buy on the basis of a gap-up inverted hammer. And once again right on cue Verizon dropped 2% on a tall gap-down red candle. That sent the indicators falling off overbought and also broke support and 44.90. So yet again this stock is still not a swing trade buy.