Monday, March 7, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower.
  • ES pivot 1995.50.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

Original vintage poster VERBIER CABLE CAR SWISS SKI & KIDS c.1965Somewhat amazingly, the Dow managed to make it four up in a row for the first time this year last Friday.  Today I got really busy with Real Life (TM) so it's just going to be another Night Owl Lite nite.  Skip right to the bottom line for the bottom line.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EST with ES down 0.14%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1985.92 to 1995.50.  And this time that's finally enough to place ES below its new pivot, for the first time in a while.  That means this indicator now turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133

March      2      1       1           0       0.667    -270

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looking more than a bit toppy to me with a bunch of reversal candles about.  The VIX put in a bottoming candle and a bullish piercing pattern too on Friday.  So I'm going to go out on a limb and call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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