Friday, April 1, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2052.83.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week  bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade.

ART PRINT POSTER TRAVEL SWISS SWITZERLAND MOUNTAIN COAST LAUSANNE OUCHY NOFL1153Last night I called the Dow lower for Thursday so you can imagine my consternation when I got up as usual at the crack of 11 AM only to find the Dow was going the wrong way.  It wandered about, but always above the flat line until right after lunch  Maybe what Mr. Market ate didn't agree with him but it was all downhill from there and we finally ended the day down 32.  That nonetheless leaves March as a stellar month indeed as the markets managed to regain all of their dismal losses YTD and then some.  So with that out of the way, let's see what April 1st has in store - no foolin'.  Only thing is that it's another Night Owl Lite night.  The Night Owl is just busy busy busy and there's only so much time and only one of me.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:13 AM EDT with ES down 0.17%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2055.50 to 2052.83. That again leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

     And the winner is...

Basically  all the bearish reversal signs I noted on the charts last night were confirmed on Thursday and all the forces in play then are still there tonight.  The problem I have now is that the first of most months is historically bullish and that goes double for April.  So I may live to regret it but in the absence of any clear bullish signs tonight I'm going to have to call Friday lower.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..


  1. Since I know you will read this. I have to say you have got to be one of the worst commentators on I use you as a contrarian indicator. Also, your stats are total BS

    1. Ah! After six years of publishing on a daily basis, my first honest-to-goodness piece of hate mail. Thanks! That really makes me feel like I've arrived.

      Interestingly, I also got another hate comment today on a different post. Umm - wait a minute - I'll bet you're the guy who's been sending me spam comments every day lately that I keep deleting.

      1 My stats are easily verified.

      2. If my blog offends you so much, don't read it. See how easy that was?

      3. Since you're apparently such an expert, kindly send me the URL of your own blog (with non-BS stats) and I'll be happy to post it here.


Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.