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| Daily Dow |
Wednesday, December 30, 2015
Interesting Dow pattern
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
Tuesday stock market forecast
The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
It was probably good that I called Monday uncertain because after a morning dip, the Dow wobbled its way back to finish off just 24 points on low holiday-week volume. We're going to write one more post for 2015 and then call it a year as I'm not expecting much of anything on Wednesday and even less on New Year's Eve.
The technicals
The Dow: After a bearish candle last Thursday, on Monday the Dow gapped down through its 200 day MA but ended with a very long-tailed hammer. Not quite sure what to make of that since the indicators continue to be confused with half rising and the rest falling as they meander around between overbought and oversold. So there's really no clear direction here for Tuesday.
The VIX: And in exact mirror image, the VIX gapped up above its own 200 day MA on Monday, gaining 7.43% but on a red candle. Frustratingly, indicators remain oversold and the stochastic has just barely squeaked out a bullish crossover. It was a bullish exit from a descending RTC though so the overall impression is less than totally clear
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:10 AM EST with ES up 0.16%. On Monday, ES successfully tested its 200 day MA with a tall hanging man to close down just a bit at 2048.75. That leaves the indicators just short of overbought and the stochastic on the brink of a bearish crossover. The new overnight is trading just outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup but in the absence of a move lower and an apparent rally forming in the wee hours, it's hard to call this chart for Tuesday.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2053.33 to 2046.17. That's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.
Dollar index: On Monday the dollar gapped down for the second day in a row but only for a 0.07% loss on a small doji star. With indicators nearly oversold this is looking like a possible reversal for Tuesday.
Euro: The euro also did little on Monday, rising back to 1.1005 on a small green candle that sent the indicators overbought. Despite that, the new overnight is continuing higher so in the absence of a reversal candle, I'[d have to guess the euro gains some more on Tuesday.
Transportation: After peaking on Thursday, the trans dropped 0.73% on Monday to exit a rising RTC for a bearish setup. Indicators are confused though, some rising, some falling. The net impression is bearish but there's considerable uncertainty around that.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538
November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 8 2 5 0 0.800 1029
And the winner is...
The charts are a bit muddled tonight and if anything have a bearish bent to them. But ES seems to be staging something of a comeback as I write. Generally that would be cause for an "uncertain" call but I think I'll hedge it with a conditional. If ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher. If it falls below and stays there, we close lower.
That's all she wrote and that wraps up 2015. I'm taking Wednesday and Thursday off. See you next year!
Single Stock Trader
After bouncing off its 200-day MA last week, on Monday Verizon finally managed a small gain but it came on an odd little green candle sitting below most of last Friday's action. In addition all the indicators are moving lower and the stochastic looks like it's making a bearish crossover so I really can't bless this as a swing trade buy right now.
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
- ES pivot 2046.17. Holding above is bullish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy
The technicals
The Dow: After a bearish candle last Thursday, on Monday the Dow gapped down through its 200 day MA but ended with a very long-tailed hammer. Not quite sure what to make of that since the indicators continue to be confused with half rising and the rest falling as they meander around between overbought and oversold. So there's really no clear direction here for Tuesday.
The VIX: And in exact mirror image, the VIX gapped up above its own 200 day MA on Monday, gaining 7.43% but on a red candle. Frustratingly, indicators remain oversold and the stochastic has just barely squeaked out a bullish crossover. It was a bullish exit from a descending RTC though so the overall impression is less than totally clear
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:10 AM EST with ES up 0.16%. On Monday, ES successfully tested its 200 day MA with a tall hanging man to close down just a bit at 2048.75. That leaves the indicators just short of overbought and the stochastic on the brink of a bearish crossover. The new overnight is trading just outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup but in the absence of a move lower and an apparent rally forming in the wee hours, it's hard to call this chart for Tuesday.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2053.33 to 2046.17. That's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.
Dollar index: On Monday the dollar gapped down for the second day in a row but only for a 0.07% loss on a small doji star. With indicators nearly oversold this is looking like a possible reversal for Tuesday.
Euro: The euro also did little on Monday, rising back to 1.1005 on a small green candle that sent the indicators overbought. Despite that, the new overnight is continuing higher so in the absence of a reversal candle, I'[d have to guess the euro gains some more on Tuesday.
Transportation: After peaking on Thursday, the trans dropped 0.73% on Monday to exit a rising RTC for a bearish setup. Indicators are confused though, some rising, some falling. The net impression is bearish but there's considerable uncertainty around that.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538
November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 8 2 5 0 0.800 1029
And the winner is...
The charts are a bit muddled tonight and if anything have a bearish bent to them. But ES seems to be staging something of a comeback as I write. Generally that would be cause for an "uncertain" call but I think I'll hedge it with a conditional. If ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher. If it falls below and stays there, we close lower.
That's all she wrote and that wraps up 2015. I'm taking Wednesday and Thursday off. See you next year!
Single Stock Trader
After bouncing off its 200-day MA last week, on Monday Verizon finally managed a small gain but it came on an odd little green candle sitting below most of last Friday's action. In addition all the indicators are moving lower and the stochastic looks like it's making a bearish crossover so I really can't bless this as a swing trade buy right now.
Monday, December 28, 2015
Monday stock market forecast
The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Ho ho ho! Looks like Santa showed up just in the St. Nick of time last week to deliver loads of nicely wrapped profits for all the good little traders everywhere. Nicely done and a round of applause for Mr. Claus!
Now we turn our attention to the waning days of the year as we look forward to 2016. With another holiday shortened week ahead I'm considering extending my vacation. And I'm also not expecting a lot of action on New Year' s Eve, leaving just three days here.
In fact I was contemplating just taking the entire week off once again but what the heck, I just can't stay away that long and after all it's the last gasp of the year so let's at least take a look to see how Monday will shake out. Of course, there's little point in reviewing four day old charts, so we'll do a Night Owl Lite and just present the conclusions. Maybe I'll do Tuesday too.
The technicals
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:09 AM EST with ES up 0.04 %.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2047.17 to 2053.33. That now places ES just below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish tonight.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538 November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 8 2 4 0 0.800 1029
And the winner is...
The first day after Christmas is historically quite bullish according to the Stock Traders Almanac. We've also been seeing a run of down Fridays that are followed by up Mondays. However, tonight we're looking at a monster three day run-up last week ending in a red inverted hammer, coupled with sagging futures in the Sunday overnight.
I note too that the indicators are all quite confused tonight with RSI and mone3y flow falling but momentum and the stochastic rising, and OBV flat. Because of all this, plus the difficulty of calling a day following an extended holiday I will simply note a modestly bearish bias but not enough to actually call Monday lower. So I guess all that leaves is Monday uncertain.
Single Stock Trader
After three nice gap-up days and a bounce off its 200 day MA this one is clearly not a swing trade buy tonight.
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Monday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2053.33. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy
 |
| The Santa Claus rally, 2015 edition |
Now we turn our attention to the waning days of the year as we look forward to 2016. With another holiday shortened week ahead I'm considering extending my vacation. And I'm also not expecting a lot of action on New Year' s Eve, leaving just three days here.
In fact I was contemplating just taking the entire week off once again but what the heck, I just can't stay away that long and after all it's the last gasp of the year so let's at least take a look to see how Monday will shake out. Of course, there's little point in reviewing four day old charts, so we'll do a Night Owl Lite and just present the conclusions. Maybe I'll do Tuesday too.
The technicals
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:09 AM EST with ES up 0.04 %.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2047.17 to 2053.33. That now places ES just below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish tonight.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538 November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 8 2 4 0 0.800 1029
And the winner is...
The first day after Christmas is historically quite bullish according to the Stock Traders Almanac. We've also been seeing a run of down Fridays that are followed by up Mondays. However, tonight we're looking at a monster three day run-up last week ending in a red inverted hammer, coupled with sagging futures in the Sunday overnight.
I note too that the indicators are all quite confused tonight with RSI and mone3y flow falling but momentum and the stochastic rising, and OBV flat. Because of all this, plus the difficulty of calling a day following an extended holiday I will simply note a modestly bearish bias but not enough to actually call Monday lower. So I guess all that leaves is Monday uncertain.
Single Stock Trader
After three nice gap-up days and a bounce off its 200 day MA this one is clearly not a swing trade buy tonight.
Friday, December 25, 2015
Merry Christmas
Merry Christmas!
Peace on Earth to all men of good will.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538
November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 8 2 4 0 0.800 1029
Friday, December 18, 2015
Friday stock market forecast
The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
Blame it on Fed regret or or the price of oil which snapped a two day winning streak on Thursday to resume its downward march, but the recent market rally is now over. We're going to take one more look at the charts for Friday before taking next week off for the Christmas holidays. 'm not expecting a lot of market action next week anyway.
The technicals
The Dow: With a dark cloud cover on Thursday that saw the Dow fall right back through the same 200 day MA that it broke above the day before, this chart now turns decidedly bearish for Friday.
The VIX: In a similar vein, on Thursday the VIX rose 6.05% but the candle belies that small move. It was a tall green marubozu that successfully tested its own 200 day MA and finished by giving us a bullish piercing pattern. Although indicators are not yet oversold the stochastic is starting to come around for a bullish crossover and the net impression of this chart is bullish.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:31 AM EST with ES down 0.25%. Like the Dow, on Thursday ES completely reversed course and fell right back through its own 200 day MA on a tall red candle to finish right back down to 2034.25. On top of that the new overnight is continuing lower and that is causing a brand new bearish stochastic crossover before the indicators have even reached overbought. That's not a good sign and so I'm not optimistic for Friday here.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2063.00 to 2049.67. That now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
Dollar index: Perhaps the most extraordinary chart of the day was the dollar which took a massive 1.47% gap-up pop thus completely canceling Wednesday's bearish harami . With such a big gap below it now, it looks like two thirds of a bearish evening star so I give better than even odds at this point that the dollar goes lower on Friday.
Euro: And of course just as impressively on Thursday the euro ignored a bullish harami to gap down on a tall red marubozu and close back down to 1.0830. That sent all the indicators continuing lower and they are now just off of oversold. And that marks a clear rejection of its 200-day MA and the start of a new downtrend. The overnight seems to be trying to stage something of a rally but I'm not convinced it will hold through Friday.
Transportation: The trans were as bearish as anything else in the charts on Thursday, completely unable to make any headway above Wednesday's highs as they fell a large 2% to give up all of Wednesday's gains and half of Tuesday's as well. Even at that the indicators continue rising just barely off of oversold. Still with such a tall red candle it's hard to find anything bullish about this chart tonight.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538 November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 7 2 4 0 0.778 662
And the winner is...
What a difference a day makes. With a promising rally short-circuited and all of the charts looking rather bearish tonight I'm just going to call Friday lower. I'll be happy to be proven wrong. That's all she wrote.
See you again not this coming Sunday night but the week after that since I'm taking next week off. Merry Christmas one and all!
Single Stock Trader
Last night I said that Verizon looked to be done as a swing trade buy and indeed on Thursday it fell along with the rest of the Dow. The candle is basically a dark cloud cover and while the indicators are now only just short of overbought they look to be about ready to turn around. So there is nothing bullish here tonight .
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Friday lower.
- ES pivot 2049.67. Holding below is bearish.
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy
Blame it on Fed regret or or the price of oil which snapped a two day winning streak on Thursday to resume its downward march, but the recent market rally is now over. We're going to take one more look at the charts for Friday before taking next week off for the Christmas holidays. 'm not expecting a lot of market action next week anyway.
The technicals
The Dow: With a dark cloud cover on Thursday that saw the Dow fall right back through the same 200 day MA that it broke above the day before, this chart now turns decidedly bearish for Friday.
The VIX: In a similar vein, on Thursday the VIX rose 6.05% but the candle belies that small move. It was a tall green marubozu that successfully tested its own 200 day MA and finished by giving us a bullish piercing pattern. Although indicators are not yet oversold the stochastic is starting to come around for a bullish crossover and the net impression of this chart is bullish.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:31 AM EST with ES down 0.25%. Like the Dow, on Thursday ES completely reversed course and fell right back through its own 200 day MA on a tall red candle to finish right back down to 2034.25. On top of that the new overnight is continuing lower and that is causing a brand new bearish stochastic crossover before the indicators have even reached overbought. That's not a good sign and so I'm not optimistic for Friday here.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2063.00 to 2049.67. That now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.
Dollar index: Perhaps the most extraordinary chart of the day was the dollar which took a massive 1.47% gap-up pop thus completely canceling Wednesday's bearish harami . With such a big gap below it now, it looks like two thirds of a bearish evening star so I give better than even odds at this point that the dollar goes lower on Friday.
Euro: And of course just as impressively on Thursday the euro ignored a bullish harami to gap down on a tall red marubozu and close back down to 1.0830. That sent all the indicators continuing lower and they are now just off of oversold. And that marks a clear rejection of its 200-day MA and the start of a new downtrend. The overnight seems to be trying to stage something of a rally but I'm not convinced it will hold through Friday.
Transportation: The trans were as bearish as anything else in the charts on Thursday, completely unable to make any headway above Wednesday's highs as they fell a large 2% to give up all of Wednesday's gains and half of Tuesday's as well. Even at that the indicators continue rising just barely off of oversold. Still with such a tall red candle it's hard to find anything bullish about this chart tonight.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538 November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 7 2 4 0 0.778 662
And the winner is...
What a difference a day makes. With a promising rally short-circuited and all of the charts looking rather bearish tonight I'm just going to call Friday lower. I'll be happy to be proven wrong. That's all she wrote.
See you again not this coming Sunday night but the week after that since I'm taking next week off. Merry Christmas one and all!
Single Stock Trader
Last night I said that Verizon looked to be done as a swing trade buy and indeed on Thursday it fell along with the rest of the Dow. The candle is basically a dark cloud cover and while the indicators are now only just short of overbought they look to be about ready to turn around. So there is nothing bullish here tonight .
Thursday, December 17, 2015
Thursday stock market forecast
The Hoot
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
I had a bad feeling about Wednesday. After all, all year long it was clear that Mr. Market hates everything. But then right at 2 PM Auntie Janet served up some of her tasty Interest Rate Surprise and it was like, hey Mikey! He likes it! With the Dow up 1.28%, the SPX up 1.45% and the Nasdaq up 1.52% it was a sea of green on the Street as the Night Owl had her best day of the year so far. Yum! There were some interesting charts to be sure but now we have to ask, will Mr. Market have a sugar crash on Thursday or will he be hankering for another helping of Feds. Let's check the charts to find out.
Let me also add that with Christmas coming next week, the Night Owl is planning to take the entire week off. With a holiday-shortened week and after all the excitement this week, I'm sure a lot of traders will be ready for a vacation.
The technicals
The Dow: Looking at it from a purely technical point of view on Monday we got a nice hammer on the Dow which was confirmed on Tuesday. And on Wednesday we got the payoff in the form of a tall green marubozu good for a 2.24 point pop that took the Dow straight through its 200-day MA. That left indicators only barely off of oversold with a long way to go before hitting overbought. So with a new rising RTC established with three up days in a row (something haven't seen in since the end of September) this chart looks flat-out bullish for Thursday.
The VIX: On Monday the VIX traded almost entirely above its 200 day MA by putting in a fat red spinning top. That was confirmed on Tuesday with a small gap-down spinning top that completed a bearish evening star. And that in turn was confirmed on Wednesday with another gap-down spinning top, this one red that resulted in a nearly 15% decline.. That leaves the VIX just above its 200 day MA at 16.51 with falling indicators and a completed bearish stochastic corssover. And there's no reason to believe that it won't try to touch that level on Thursday.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:49 AM EST with ES down 0.29%. Like the Dow and the SPX, on Wednesday ES smashed right through its 200-day MA in this case at 2049 to finish at 2072 on a tall green candle. That leaves all of the indicators rising towards overbought, but they're not there yet. With Monday's green spinning top confirmed and no real resistance between here and 2090 there is technically nothing bearish about this chart tonight. The only worry is that after such a big three day gain investors might want to be taking some profits off the table on Thursday, and the overnight pin action seems to be supporting that idea. Oh - something else to note - it looks to me like ES is putting in a double bottom with support at 2007, a bullish sign for sure. Just take a look at the daily chart here and see if you don't agree.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2039.50 to 2063.00. Even at that ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bulish.
Dollar index: For all the hoopla on Wednesday it wasn't particularly reflected in the dollar which lost 0.41%, a move that in other times might have seemed large but given the giant decline we saw just two weeks ago it was nothing out of the ordinary. This fat red spinning top in bearish harami position sent the indicators moving lower before ever reaching overbought. That makes it questionable whether the dollar can advance any further on Thursday.
Euro: And on Wednesday the euro which had been frustrated for a week now by its own 200 day MA at 1.1038 finally gave up the ghost with a gap-down red marubozu that took it back to 1.0889. That also sent all the indicator is falling off of overbought and left the stochastic in full on bearish crossover mode. And that leaves nothing at all bullish about this chart for Thursday.
Transportation: And finally the trans also had a great day on Wednesday with a 1.8% gain on a tall green marubozu. That confirms Monday's hammer and sent all of the indicators rising off of oversold. We are now also just on the edge of a three week long descending RTC for a bullish set up. It very well looks like the three week-long descending RTC might finally be over. In any case tonight there's nothing at all bearish about this chart for Thursday.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538
November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 6 2 4 0 0.750 662
And the winner is...
Surely I can't be the only person who was surprised at the extent of the rally the last two days. I think this may tempt traders to take some profits, and some may develop a case of Fed remorse. Either way, although the charts are uniformly bullish tonight the futures are guiding lower and we may be in for a pause or a bit of retracement on Thursday so I'm going to make a conditional call: if ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning, we'll close Thursday higher, but if it breaks under and stays there, we close lower.
Single Stock Trader
On Wednesday Verizon was one of the better performers in the Dow and that was good enough for a better than 2% pop. That move took it above its upper BB on a tall green candle for a new rising RTC. Indicators are now all solidly rising along with a nicely completed bullish stochastic crossover. Since we are still nowhere near overbought there might still be some more upside available on Thursday but this bus has now left the station so it is sadly no longer a swing trade buy.
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday higher only if ES stays above its new pivot, else lower.
- ES pivot 2063.00. Holding above is bullish.
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy
 |
| Hey Mikey! He likes it! |
Let me also add that with Christmas coming next week, the Night Owl is planning to take the entire week off. With a holiday-shortened week and after all the excitement this week, I'm sure a lot of traders will be ready for a vacation.
The technicals
The Dow: Looking at it from a purely technical point of view on Monday we got a nice hammer on the Dow which was confirmed on Tuesday. And on Wednesday we got the payoff in the form of a tall green marubozu good for a 2.24 point pop that took the Dow straight through its 200-day MA. That left indicators only barely off of oversold with a long way to go before hitting overbought. So with a new rising RTC established with three up days in a row (something haven't seen in since the end of September) this chart looks flat-out bullish for Thursday.
The VIX: On Monday the VIX traded almost entirely above its 200 day MA by putting in a fat red spinning top. That was confirmed on Tuesday with a small gap-down spinning top that completed a bearish evening star. And that in turn was confirmed on Wednesday with another gap-down spinning top, this one red that resulted in a nearly 15% decline.. That leaves the VIX just above its 200 day MA at 16.51 with falling indicators and a completed bearish stochastic corssover. And there's no reason to believe that it won't try to touch that level on Thursday.
 |
| ES daily |
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2039.50 to 2063.00. Even at that ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bulish.
Dollar index: For all the hoopla on Wednesday it wasn't particularly reflected in the dollar which lost 0.41%, a move that in other times might have seemed large but given the giant decline we saw just two weeks ago it was nothing out of the ordinary. This fat red spinning top in bearish harami position sent the indicators moving lower before ever reaching overbought. That makes it questionable whether the dollar can advance any further on Thursday.
Euro: And on Wednesday the euro which had been frustrated for a week now by its own 200 day MA at 1.1038 finally gave up the ghost with a gap-down red marubozu that took it back to 1.0889. That also sent all the indicator is falling off of overbought and left the stochastic in full on bearish crossover mode. And that leaves nothing at all bullish about this chart for Thursday.
Transportation: And finally the trans also had a great day on Wednesday with a 1.8% gain on a tall green marubozu. That confirms Monday's hammer and sent all of the indicators rising off of oversold. We are now also just on the edge of a three week long descending RTC for a bullish set up. It very well looks like the three week-long descending RTC might finally be over. In any case tonight there's nothing at all bearish about this chart for Thursday.
Accuracy:
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 3 0.692 183
March 7 6 5 4 0.647 976
April 3 8 7 0 0.273 1
May 6 5 5 2 0.615 581
June 8 6 3 4 0.706 552
July 10 1 5 4 0.938 1212
August 10 2 3 2 0.857 2314
September 7 4 8 1 0.667 1404
October 7 7 5 1 0.533 538
November 4 6 4 2 0.500 -350
December 6 2 4 0 0.750 662
And the winner is...
Surely I can't be the only person who was surprised at the extent of the rally the last two days. I think this may tempt traders to take some profits, and some may develop a case of Fed remorse. Either way, although the charts are uniformly bullish tonight the futures are guiding lower and we may be in for a pause or a bit of retracement on Thursday so I'm going to make a conditional call: if ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning, we'll close Thursday higher, but if it breaks under and stays there, we close lower.
Single Stock Trader
On Wednesday Verizon was one of the better performers in the Dow and that was good enough for a better than 2% pop. That move took it above its upper BB on a tall green candle for a new rising RTC. Indicators are now all solidly rising along with a nicely completed bullish stochastic crossover. Since we are still nowhere near overbought there might still be some more upside available on Thursday but this bus has now left the station so it is sadly no longer a swing trade buy.
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