Thursday, December 3, 2015

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2087.17.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Friday  bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Well Wednesday afternoon Auntie Janet Spaketh and Mr. Market didn't Liketh it, dropping 159 in the Dow to end near session lows.  And to top it all off, it's another Nite Owl Lite Nite as I just plum ran out of time to put the blog together.  So it's just the conclusions, no discussions.  (And I apologize for neglecting to update the Wednesday headline call.  It really was "uncertain", as given on the Bottom Line.)

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EST with ES up 0.12%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2095.00 to 2087.17.  .That puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314

September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538

November   4      6       4           2       0.500   -350
December   1      0       1           0       1.000    168

     And the winner is...

Wednesday sort of undid all the progress we made on Tuesday and the charts tonight are once again looking generally pretty negative.  But from a slightly wider perspective, it looks like we're still in the same rut as last week, just a bit wider ranging now.  We're near the bottom of the range, but the indicators are looking lower and the VIX is wanting to run higher.  So I hate to do it but with this sort of confusion in the charts I have no choice but to throw up my hands and call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I said to let VZ go if it failed to run higher on Wednesday.  Well it did (fail), so this trade is over, Jack.

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