Monday, October 31, 2016

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
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  • Monday higher.
  • ES pivot 2123.83  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Holy moly.  Am I ever glad I called last Friday as "uncertain"  We've seen the Greenspan Put, the Yellen Call, and now the Clinton Crash.  As soon as the news hit the wires, down we went.  This is one reason I don't day-trade anymore.  You have to sit there all day long with your eyes literally glued to the screen.  Actually, one eye on the tickers and the other on the news feed.  Maybe some people can do that, I can't.

So what the heck was that all about anyway?  More Clintonian email shenanigans?  And Anthony Wiener is back??  Where the heck did he come from?  I thought we were done with him.  And then to top off the irony, after all that excitement and a 163 point swing end-to-end the Dow finished just eight points lower.

So with that bit of insanity out of the way (or is it?) let's take a look at Monday as we close out the spooky and downright bizarre month of October and the quarter.  But first...

Political Rant

With the "choice" we've been given for President this year, here's the ballot I'm casting next week:  Am I seriously to believe that out of maybe 200 million eligible Americans, these two clowns are the best we could come up with?
See ya!

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:16 AM EDT with ES up 0.22%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2129.92 to 2123.83.  And that's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304

August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October   10      3       5           1       0.786     314

     And the winner is...

There's plenty of reasons to take the day off and go fishing right now, like an upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday and a crazy lunatic election next week.  But Monday marks the end of the third quarter and is a historically strong day.  ES earlier Sunday evening tested month-long support at 2122 and it held.  The Sunday overnight futures do seem to be supporting a bullish move right now with a decent gain after bouncing off their lower BB so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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